Hoosier

We've seen that a few times over the years.

Here is the 00z Euro at 10:1. Even adjusting this down some would still be an all-timer/historic for the calendar time of year for eastern LOT.

Seriously, they went back to the old way?

I have nothing to back this up but for some reason I have a feeling we are going to get a Euro run that goes a little nutty with widespread double digits or something.

Good stuff. Thanks.

Yeah it's hard to imagine downtown not struggling more than farther inland. As far as I can tell, mid lake water temps are in the mid 40s with warmer conditions closer to shore as you mentioned. The airmass aloft looks cold enough for snow all the way to the shore but could envision it remaining 2-3 degrees above freezing there for much of the time.

So, March and April 1923 were both colder than average. That storm was on May 9. When you compare this to the temperatures in March and April 2021, I'm not sure the leafout on May 9, 1923 would've been any farther along than it is currently. Would be nice to see some pics from back then.

For sure. They might pass our death toll this summer at this rate.

Josh or anybody else... do you know how far along the leafout was for the May 1923 storm?

Do you have an early guess on what ratios may be like in the area? It looks like the dgz is not particularly shallow and there is decent lift. Obviously the marginal surface temps don't help but given what I mentioned above, I was thinking it may help to counteract the surface conditions to some extent so that maybe we end up with like 8:1 (maybe temporarily higher?) instead of something extremely waterlogged like 5:1?

The before and after on this might be interesting. I have never seen it snow when it is so flowered out. Not sure if it will be able to withstand or if it will get wrecked.

Hate to say it but there is some lazy forecasting from some offices this afternoon. With CAA and precip, it is not going to snow in the morning and then change back to rain during the afternoon on Tuesday. Following MOS output will burn you. At least there is still about 4 days to go and it's not being said the day before, I guess.

Like 75% of the eastern US is at or above average so far. When he posted that, it gave the impression that the majority of the east was filled with greens and blues (below average).

If ORD can pick up 1.9" or more, it would be the 4th April in a row that outsnows March. This had never even happened 3 years in a row until now.

ECMWF has been running north of the GFS, and that continues on the 12z run.

Just one model but can see the difference between 10:1 and Kuchera. Given the progged temps aloft and mod-heavy precip rates, the GFS does seem perhaps a touch warm at the surface in my opinion. Would expect a lot more 32-33 degree readings in the heart of the precip band, even during the daytime. But I could be wrong.

I don't think the leafout was this far along in the recent Aprils that had snow, so it will be an interesting look. I have a tree out back that looks absolutely gorgeous right now... it only stays in this stage for a few weeks or so.

O rly?

Also, this does not really look like a situation where time of day will dictate the precip type (i.e. snow in the morning and changing to rain in the afternoon), which sometimes happens at this time of year. 925 mb temps are progged to be -2C to around -5C in some areas, which is good enough to snow in the daytime. Obviously all else being equal, you will tend to get more efficient snow accumulation when it's dark, but rates with this setup look good enough to accumulate during the day at least on the colder surfaces. Will take some heavier rates to get it to stick on the roads, which can't be ruled out.

I don't expect it to be a significant player but there is actually a signal for some lake response off of Lake Michigan as delta T gets into the negative teens.

Maybe not normally thread worthy, but the bar is lower considering the late season nature. Actually appears like this could occur across a rather large chunk of the sub, even if not particularly heavy in one area.

Anyone see the Denmark health official faint at the news conference about the AstraZeneca vaccine? Of all the times.

Statistically, healthy people aren't impacted as severely. It's not a magic bullet, but you'd rather be a healthy individual without comorbidities. I don't think I have seen anybody beat their chest about their personal fitness level on a non-fitness board as much as winterwx21, but there's a lot of truth in what he posts about risk levels and how to reduce your odds of having severe covid. One thing he has not really mentioned though is that it's tough to predict how his body would react if it encountered one of the variants. There's some variables involved and just because you flew through covid with ease the first time doesn't necessarily mean it would be the case next time.

I almost posted the accumulation map but figured it was a little too early lol There are implied mod/hvy rates in that depiction, so it would likely accumulate in that scenario. That's the key though, "in that scenario."

How's this for low-hanging fruit. For 4/20, the daily record snowfall is 0.2" for Chicago and is a trace for Indianapolis. Also, the last time that Indianapolis had measurable snow on 4/20 or later was back in 1989.