Hoosier

May still be getting NAMmed as the 18z run is sticking with a decent hit I-80 southward in LOT.

Dude, above or below 10k is a binary yes or no. On the other hand, "well below" is up for debate. That could mean 8k to someone, 6k to someone else, etc.

This trend translates into the sfc temps as well. Here's a loop of the last several runs valid 18z Tuesday. The southeastward shifts are evident but notice the warming trend on the nw side as well. This results in a more mixy outcome on the Euro.

Something I noticed on there over the last several runs is warming of the 925 mb temps. Even after accounting for the southeast shifts, the 925 mb temps on the nw flank are warmer than before. I think it's still cold enough to keep snow as the main ptype, but it puts even more importance on getting good rates.

Idk about the risk/reward on that lol. You are a very valuable contributor in this thread with your medical background.

Using Toledo as an example, they have had only 3 calendar day snows of 1" or greater on or after 4/20: 4/21/1922 5/9/1923 4/24/2005 Indianapolis has not had any measurable snow at all this late in the season since 1989.

Do still have the HRRR and RAP with northern solutions, though they have been shifting south.

The lingering model differences are not helpful and make for a somewhat tricky call, but in either case, it's a downgrade from my earlier expectations. Scenario 1: Precip onset time occurs around 7-8 am and quickly picks up in intensity with snow falling at a decent clip, which is able to lay down a base on colder surfaces prior to the increasing sun angle throughout the day. This scenario potentially results in a couple inches or so. Scenario 2: Precip onset time occurs slightly later in the morning and stays light the whole time, struggling to accumulate. This would result in a light coating at most on colder surfaces.

Bye bye old record

Maybe the Ukie will never shift north. This is 10:1 because that is all that is available

Finally edged north. Probably still not far enough though.

Any thoughts on which models are more likely to verify? Northern? Southern? Compromise?

Getting a little annoyed at the model differences, and you don't want to see me when I'm annoyed by weather models.

Something is really wrong if we don't decline into summer. I would disagree with the idea of it being a permanent downturn, as I have a hard time believing there won't be any increase again as we get into fall/winter. But the good news is that the starting point will be much lower this time.

Regarding that 4/14/19 snow... once rates got heavy enough, I do remember it sticking on the pavement during the middle of the day even with temps of 33-34.

It would help if we could get consensus between the NAM/hires models and the globals. Even in the NAM/hires scenario though, it doesn't appear peak rates would be quite as heavy in the LOT cwa as the infamous 4/14/19 event.

Yeah, well, we'll see. Obviously I've made no secret that I am skeptical of it ending up so far south. My guess would be that most of Cook county ends up with over 1"

ORD has broken a daily snowfall record in April 3 years in a row: 2.0" on 4/9/2018 5.4" on 4/14/2019 and 2.5" on 4/27/2019 1.7" on 4/15/2020 and 3.0" on 4/17/2020 The daily record for 4/20 is 0.2" in 1943. That should be a lay up to break even though you never know what you're going to get in terms of measuring at ORD.

Pretty wide spread between the GFS/NAM this close in. I'd be stunned if the northern edge of the snow ends up as far south as the GFS. Not that I think the NAM is going to nail that either.

Well, that would make more sense. The initial post about people over/under estimating hospitalization rates was unclear as it did not say whether it was only talking about covid patients or every man and woman walking around in the United States.

Guarantee that more than 0.86% of 85+ year olds with covid have been hospitalized.

Would point out though that the April snows of the past few years targeted central/northern LOT. This one looks to be focused farther south, and it's been a long time since areas south of I-80 in LOT had significant snow so late in April (especially if it ends up being a 3-6" thing).

Generally not a fan of the seasonal trend line of argument, but I do think it is a mistake to not weight the NAM into the forecast. How much, well, that's what people get paid for lol. The early part of this event in particular is very mesoscale driven, which is usually NAM wheelhouse.

Good question. I doubt we'll see anything today. Too much uncertainty with magnitude of road impacts a bit unclear.

12z Euro is sort of a compromise between the northernmost and southernmost models. We seem to have a battle of the global vs higher res/mesoscale models.