Hoosier

lol, wow

SPC actually has parts of the region outlooked for general thunder. LOT afd mentioned waterspouts possible.

For sure. Although accumulating snow in mid-April and beyond is seemingly becoming a routine thing in Illinois lately, it has not been a common occurrence over the long haul. I don't know for sure, but I would guess that many of the forecasters at LOT and surrounding offices rarely, if ever, had to forecast an event like 4/14/19 before. When there isn't much past experience to fall back on with similarly late in the season sig snowfalls, it doesn't help.

It takes a lot for snow to impact the roads at this time of year. If you're thinking that the roads will just be wet and thus you don't issue an advisory before the event, then you better be hyper vigilant and be ready to adjust quickly if the situation changes. We saw one of these go the other way in Illinois on 4/14/2019. No advisory ahead of time, the roads went to shit and there was a late pull of the trigger.

It is kind of funny that a late season/historic snowfall doesn't get an advisory, but when you think about what goes into the decision, it makes sense why they didn't issue one. Is what is happening tonight different on the roads than what a rain would be? Are there any reports of slick roads/accidents in central Indiana?

As an example, here are the daily snowfall records for Indianapolis. Once you get around/after April 20, there is a noticeable dropoff and it becomes much more unusual to see measurable snow, let alone an inch or more.

Very impressive indeed

Also, as has been pointed out, there is a massive difference between getting snow in the first week of April vs after the midpoint of the month, especially with southward extent. It is not like the difference between February 5 and February 20.

Ricky had a nice discussion.

Just glad we had some warmth this month. April is probably still going to finish near or warmer than average across the sub.

The thing I'm curious about is how the pace of covid mutations compares to other coronaviruses that were already out there. Is it on the quicker side or does it just seem that way because of all the attention that covid is getting?

Indiana just got rid of the Sunday thing a few years ago. Hours are still limited on Sunday though... I think from noon until 8 or 9 pm. But we're talking Indiana... not exactly a state known for quick progress on certain things lol.

On the topic of herd immunity... I agree with what is said in this story. Just try to get as many people vaccinated as possible and stop focusing as much on a catchy term that in some ways is a moving target. Theoretically, a place could get to herd immunity and then pop back out as seasons change or if other variants come out that cut into the efficacy of vaccines, etc. Is herd immunity to COVID-19 possible? Experts increasingly say no. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/19/herd-immunity-us-likely-impossible-but-vaccines-can-control-covid/7139419002/

Been coming down nicely and sticking a bit on colder surfaces. It's almost "raining snow" if you will... looks very wet when falling.

Dews in the 20s upstream with even some teens farther north

Tornadoes

And a PDS tornado watch: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO 511 PM CDT FRI APR 19 1996 THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES.ALSO HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN. REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN IL AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SRN IA. SEVERE STORMS NOW OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. ...HALES

Let's reminisce on a significant severe weather event. Hey, I got one. Today is the 25th anniversary of the April 19, 1996 outbreak. Here is the convective discussion from that morning: ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000 ACUS1 KMKC 191442 MKC AC 191442 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCCGPH940. VALID 191500Z - 201200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE OVER PTNS OF CNTRL/SRN IL...EXTRM ERN NO...MUCH OF IND...AND PARTS OF WRN KY...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SDF BWG 35 SSE PAH PO2 STL BRL MMO SBN PWA 40 NE SDF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ART 35 NNW MSV CXY CRW 35 WNW CHA TUP MLU TYR PRX PGO UNO VIH LRK 25 WNW OTM ALO MSN 20 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBC JFK ... CONT ... SSI AQQ ... CONT ...BPT 35 W TPL MWL MKO TBN COU STJ BIE CRI 45 ENE BUB FSD RWF IWD CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA BPI 35 NW VEL ELY SFO. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO OUTBREAK PSBL TDA OVR PTNS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS. LTST STLT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL VORT MAX OVR WRN NEB/KS MOVG ENEWD...WITH ASSOCD 70-80 KT WLY MID LVL JET XTNDG ACRS NM/OK. LOW LVL FLOW OVR THE MS VLY HAS BACKED IN RESPONSE TO APCHG SYS...ADVECTING GULF MSTR NWD. SFC DWPNTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS FAR N AS SRN IL...WITH FURTHER NWD TRANSPORT XPCTD THRU THE DAY. MID LVL TEMPS ARE ALSO QUITE COOL OVER THIS RGN WITH H5 TEMPS OF -16 TO -18 INDCD ON 12Z RAOBS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLDS ACRS THIS RGN ARE XCPD TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORN...WITH STG SFC HTG AND INCRG LOW LVL MSTR RESULTING IN MDT/STG INSTBLY FROM CNTRL IL SWD INTO ERN AR/WRN TN WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND LI/S OF -8 TO -10. TSTMS ARE XPCD TO DVLP LATER THIS AFTN ALG SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS/DRYLN XTNDG FROM WRN IL INTO EXTRM ERN MO. STG LOW LVL FORCING AND DEGREE OF INSTBY SUG STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BCM SVR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL PSBL. IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID LVL SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE WIND PROFILES ALSO SUG SGFNT PTNL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACRS THE HIGH RISK AREA. OTR MORE ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVE OVER PTNS OF ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE INCRG LOW LEVEL MSTR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DESTABILIZE AMS ABV SFC...WITH LARGE HAIL PSBL IN STGR STORMS.

Snowfall stats for Fort Wayne: 4/20 daily record: 0.2" in 1953 Calendar day snows of 1"+ on/after 4/20. Twice, in back to back years nearly a century ago. 5/9/1923: 1.1" 4/21/1924: 4.7"

Creeper trend

The bit of rain today was still enough to knock some flowers off the tree in the backyard. Gives me some insight into how it's going to handle tomorrow.

Looks impressive. Could also result in hyper localized temp differences/fluctuations.

This low-level convergence axis in IL and WI (or whatever it is... haven't really looked at it) is kinda curious.