Hoosier

Anything is possible. I guess I could hit a halfcourt shot with a moving basket.

As of this writing, ORD is at 2.45" for met Spring. A top 3 driest finish looks like a virtual lock, with a pretty decent chance to finish at #2. #1 would take a minor miracle.

She very well could've had a worse case of covid had she not been vaccinated. A healthy 43 year old should have mounted a very robust response to the vaccine. Maybe she did, so the question is why the infection was able to break through. I wonder if that repeated exposure in the house made it more likely. That is not like going out to a restaurant, possibly coming in contact with covid at some point, and then leaving.

I realize you can't really avoid your young kids at home, but this story is a cautionary tale that generally speaking, it's probably not the greatest idea to deliberately expose yourself over and over to someone with covid even after you're fully vaccinated. A healthy 43 year old runner does not fit the profile of someone you would expect the vaccine to fail in, so could be that repeated exposure in the house was just too much for her vaccine-induced immunity to contain? She still has shortness of breath about 2 months after getting sick. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-will-not-investigate-mild-infections-in-vaccinated-americans/ar-AAKmGW8

I realize you can't really avoid your young kids at home, but this story is a cautionary tale that generally speaking, it's probably not the greatest idea to deliberately expose yourself over and over to someone with covid even after you're fully vaccinated. A healthy 43 year old runner does not fit the profile of someone you would expect the vaccine to fail in, so it could be that repeated exposure in the house was just too much for her vaccine-induced immunity to contain. She still has shortness of breath about 2 months after getting sick. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-will-not-investigate-mild-infections-in-vaccinated-americans/ar-AAKmGW8

The first man in the world outside of clinical trial to receive the Pfizer vaccine has died. You may remember hearing about him since he happened to have the name of William Shakespeare. Covid-19: First man to get jab William Shakespeare dies of unrelated illness https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-57234741.amp

Agree with that, but doesn't mean it can't originate here. I do wonder if it could be less likely to have a variant develop in a kid. I read something a while back that suggested a variant is more likely to develop in someone who has an immune disorder of some kind.

You could wait for severe weather to visit northern Illinois, which should be no later than, oh, June 2025.

It's a tougher individual decision on whether to get your kid vaccinated, BUT generally speaking, the more you let the virus run around, the more likely it is to get a new variant that really poses a problem to the current vaccines. Biologically, is there any reason to think that a troublesome variant would be less likely to arise from a child?

I'd argue well over 0.25"... and the rains must be more frequent. Most of this sub averages about 0.10-0.15" of precip per day at this time of year. If you get a quarter inch and then go just a few days without rain, you are right back where you started.

Tough times LOT yesterday The main target of concern in the long term period is the potential for a soaking rainfall Thursday night into early Friday morning as an upper-level wave and associated surface low swing through the Great Lakes. While still several days away, WPC-based ensemble clustering shows that ~50% of all ECMWF/GFS/CMC ensemble members drop a swath of 0.5"+ of rain across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. The ECMWF ensemble itself demonstrates a 50-70% chance that 24-hour rainfall will exceed 0.5", as well, though within across a broad swath indicative of ensemble variance of the rainfall footprint. Over the coming days, we expect the spatial extent of rainfall in ensemble forecast guidance to narrow. Even so, confidence is cautiously growing in a much-needed round of rainfall across parts if not most of the area. LOT today Forecast deterministic and ensemble model guidance is in fair agreement that a surface low will track roughly along the warm front from central Iowa through central Illinois Thursday evening into Friday while modestly deepening beneath a decidedly positively- tilted trough. Compared to 24 hours ago, there is a growing trend that an episode of active convection will occur along and south of the warm front Thursday night into Friday. A quick glimpse at forecast shear, instability, and PWATs certainly lends support to a threat for severe weather and soaking rain rates along/south of the front. Pinpointing where the front will stall will be a great target for future forecast packages, with the current iteration favoring the boundary a county or two south of our forecast area. At any rate, Friday still looks miserable with increasingly gusty northeast winds off Lake Michigan, mostly cloudy skies, on- and- off showers, and highs only in the 50s. Lakeshore locations will face the worst conditions with 30-35 mph gusts off the lake and highs only in the lower 50s... Not a great day to be out on a boat. With the trend toward a round active convection to our south, overall precipitation amounts locally may not be as high as originally thought especially as one heads toward the IL/WI state line. However, our forecast still favors at least some rain for everyone.

Just keep the morning of the 10th clear for the eclipse. That day will actually start coming into range on the GFS pretty soon. Unlike the one in 2017 when you could pretty much look straight up and watch it, you will need an unobstructed eastern horizon since it's at sunrise. My #1 choice was to go to one of the lakefront parks to watch the sunrise over Lake Michigan, but the ones I checked don't open until a couple hours later and I don't want to risk sneaking in.

Can you elaborate?

Are you capable of not posting stupid stuff like what you posted in this thread?

Was looking into this... for Chicago, it's only the 2nd time that the first 90 degree high came on the same day in back to back years. The other time was June 10 in 2015/2016. It took over 140 years of temperature records to happen for the first time, and now it's happened twice in less than a decade.

The other thing is will there be enough data globally on which flu strains are dominating to be able to make a good vaccine for our fall/winter? Flu season has been knocked down to such low numbers. If some percentage of the population continues to wear masks this fall/winter, then that could help knock down the flu rate to some extent.

Highs in the LOT cwa

ORD did reach 90 for the first time this year. Coincidentally, the first 90 last year was also on May 24.

In 2020, it was about 3 weeks after Memorial Day that cases started rising, particularly in southern states. Obviously it's a different ballgame now with so many prior infections and vaccinations, so it will be interesting to see what the trends look like about 4-6 weeks from now. There are a few possibilities... 1) cases continue declining at the same fast rate. 2) cases continue to decline, but at a slower rate. 3) cases start rising. #3 seems least likely, but it'll be a learning experience to go through these warm weather holidays before we get to the next test in Fall.

My allergies are flaring up pretty bad, and I take an allergy medication. Almost tempted to start wearing a mask outside in some settings. I saw a guy mowing his lawn with a mask on so apparently some people have figured out they are useful for other purposes.

There are some 90 degree readings on the 5 min obs, but not sure if it's a real 90 or a rounded one.

88 at ORD. Not sure if there is enough gas in the tank to get to 90. Airmass aloft is marginal for 90 but mixing is pretty deep today.

Next Sunday or Monday (or both) seems prime to clock in under 10k, due to the typical Sunday/Monday lesser reporting combined with it being a holiday weekend. We'll see.

Parts of Japan are struggling a lot. They have not been doing well with vaccinations. There's a looming issue to deal with as well with playing host to the summer olympics.

Late week looks like a better shot at some rain. Hopefully the impressive sub 0.5" streak holds... would be a shame to lose it on a squeaker.