Hoosier

It's early, but it doesn't look like an obvious case of clear skies everywhere for the morning eclipse on the 10th. Probably going to be dealing with some clouds in some areas. Seems like northern areas *could* have less clouds, but it's subject to change of course. If you're looking at 3 hr model increments, you want to look at 9z and 12z Thursday since the eclipse will fall between those times.

Bismarck got to 112 in 2006.

We know it, but I think that the average person who's not from the northern Plains doesn't realize how hot it can get there.

A roaster

High at ORD looks like probably 87. I think.

I actually got down to 49 this morning.

LOT has 90+ at ORD for the next 4 days. If that occurs, it would be the first 4 day 90+ streak prior to June 15 since 1999.

Yes, they did switch over to 1991-2020 normals.

Wheeling is torching nicely.

Here's an approximation of February-May temps. Not even in the same area code as 10 below average in northern IL.

February to May wasn't even close to 10 degrees below average.

The IsraeIi Health Ministry says there is a likely link between the Pfizer vaccine and myocarditis in the 16-30 age group, and particularly in 16-19 year olds. Seems like there isn't consensus on this yet though. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-sees-probable-link-between-pfizer-vaccine-small-number-myocarditis-cases-2021-06-01/ I haven't seen polling on it, but I wonder what percentage of parents who got a covid vaccine are hesitant about their kids getting it as people may tend to be more cautious with their kids. In general, you would expect that parents who did not receive a vaccine would not want their kid getting one either. Although the risk of vaccine induced myocarditis appears to be quite low, it does make for an interesting debate on whether it's worth getting vaccinated right now if you're in that age group, or if it's worth putting it off and waiting for more info about this. The risk of severe covid in teenagers is very low, and thebackground level of virus in the US is dropping pretty rapidly. Of course there could end up being an issue in Fall if huge numbers of kids remain unvaccinated and if safety protocols in schools are relaxed/eliminated.

The IsraeIi Health Ministry says there is a likely link between the Pfizer vaccine and myocarditis in the 16-30 age group, and particularly in 16-19 year olds. Seems like there isn't consensus on this yet though. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-sees-probable-link-between-pfizer-vaccine-small-number-myocarditis-cases-2021-06-01/ I haven't seen polling on it, but I wonder what percentage of parents who got a covid vaccine are hesitant about their kids getting it as people may tend to be more cautious with their kids. In general, you would expect that parents who did not receive a vaccine would not want their kid getting one either. Although the risk of vaccine induced myocarditis appears to be quite low, it does make for an interesting debate on whether it's worth getting vaccinated right now if you're in that age group, or if it's worth putting it off and waiting for more info about this. The risk of severe covid in teenagers is very low, and the background level of virus in the US is dropping pretty rapidly. Of course there could end up being an issue in Fall if huge numbers of kids remain unvaccinated and if safety protocols in schools are relaxed/eliminated.

I was curious about whether such a dry January-May in Chicago would increase the odds of seeing a 100 degree day this summer, so I ran some numbers. As posted above, January-May 2021 had 6.95" at ORD. Not counting this year, there have been 23 years when January-May produced less than 10". About 26% of those years produced at least one 100+ degree day. About 22% of years with >10" in January-May went on to produce at least one 100+ degree day. So, there is not much of a signal there based on that. Interestingly, the 2 driest January-May periods (1934 and 1989) both produced 100+. 2021 ranked 4th, so not much farther down the list. The takeaway for me is that there may be a higher chance than usual that Chicago reaches 100 sometime this year, but it's probably still less likely than not.

Not that it makes a huge difference, but whose numbers are we using to call the drop below 10k -- the twitter guy or worldometers? I think the latter includes cases from US territories.

The time is now.

LOT raised tomorrow's high at ORD to 86. Sounds about right.

With Chicago set to begin an 80+ degree streak starting tomorrow, I thought I'd post the longest 80+ streaks in June. The numbers here represent the number of days in June, but many of these streaks went past the end of the month. Let's see if we can make it onto this list. 1954: 21 days 1995: 18 days 1998: 15 days (cont. beyond June) 1991: 15 days 1964: 14 days (cont. beyond June) 1949: 14 days (cont. beyond June) 2010: 13 days 2002: 13 days (cont. beyond June) 1997: 13 days (cont. beyond June) 1994: 13 days 1975: 13 days (cont. beyond June) 1966: 13 days (cont. beyond June) 1970: 12 days 1874: 12 days (cont. beyond June)

I'd bet my house on June coming in warmer than average in most or all of the sub. Then it would come down to July/August to reverse.

There will never be thunder again north of 40N.

The longevity impresses me even more. Things could still change but it looks like this could go on for quite a while. Day after day of positive double digit temp anomalies should start to rack up some pretty good temperature departures by the time we approach the middle of the month.

Thursday has overperformer written all over it. Plenty of sun, deep mixing, relatively dry airmass and dry ground has me thinking at least 85 at ORD and wouldn't be shocked at a tad warmer.

Met Spring for Chicago: warmer and drier than avg Public Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago IL 421 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 /521 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021/ ...A Look Back at the Climate for Meteorological Spring (March, April, May) 2021 for Chicago and Rockford... At Chicago, the average high temperature for the spring season was 61.4 degrees, which is 2.6 degrees above normal. The average low temperature was 42.8 degrees, which is 2.2 degrees above normal. The mean temperature for the season was 52.1 degrees, which is 2.4 degrees above normal. A total of 3.75 inches of precipitation was recorded during this past spring, which is 6.94 inches below normal. In addition, a total of 1.8 inches of snow fell, which is 5.0 inches below normal. Records established or tied during the spring months: March: * Tied record daily maximum temperature of 69 degrees on the 9th. * Record daily highest minimum temperature of 57 degrees on the 10th. ** 10th warmest March on record since 1871 with a mean average temperature of 44.2 degrees. April: * Tied record daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees on the 27th. ** 6th driest April on record since 1871 with 0.71 inches of precipitation. May: None. Top Ten Seasonal Records: ** 7th warmest spring on record since 1871 with a mean average temperature of 52.1 degrees. ** 3rd driest spring on record since 1871 with 3.75 inches of precipitation. Ogorek

Someday. Sometime. Fwiw, I think the climate modeling was suggestive of fewer tornado days in the future, but more tornadoes on those days so perhaps it would sort of be a wash. But don't quote me on that, and even if I am remembering correctly, I don't know about the projection for severe weather generally.

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago IL 119 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 /219 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021/ ...A Look Back at the Climate for the Month of May 2021 for Chicago and Rockford... At Chicago, the average high temperature was 69.7 degrees, which is 0.8 degrees below normal. The average low temperature was 50.8 degrees, which is 0.2 degrees above normal. The average temperature for the month was 60.2 degrees, which is 0.4 degrees below normal. During the month of May, 1.79 inches of precipitation were recorded, which is 2.70 inches below normal. There were no daily or top ten monthly records set for Chicago during the month of May 2021. At Rockford, the average high temperature was 71.3 degrees, which is 0.1 degrees above normal. The average low temperature was 50.2 degrees, which is 0.7 degrees above normal. The average temperature for the month was 60.8 degrees, which is 0.4 degrees above normal. During the month of May, 2.36 inches of precipitation were recorded, which is 1.82 inches below normal. One daily record for Rockford was set and two were tied during the month of May 2021: * Tied record daily maximum temperature of 88 on the 1st. * Tied record daily highest minimum temperature of 61 on the 2nd. * Record daily highest minimum temperature of 70 degrees on the 25th. There were no top ten monthly records set for Rockford during the month of May 2021. $$ Ogorek