Hoosier

If convection doesn't mess things up, Friday has a chance to be pretty hot here with 850's possibly over 20C.

Post worthy Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 950 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A prolonged and likely record-breaking heatwave capable of significant threats to life and infrastructure will take hold of our region this week and continue into the weekend. Temperatures may begin to decrease early next week but should remain well above average. && .UPDATE...Forecast in good shape today and no updates are planned this morning. Temperatures have continued their upward trend and averaging 2 to 4 degrees higher than they were at this time yesterday. The excessive heat warning goes into effect at many locations, including the Las Vegas Valley momentarily, at 10 am PDT this morning. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. The stage is set for an extended period of excessive heat as a strong Four Corners High slowly expands and eventually works its way more directly over our region. Westward expansion of the high will be limited today and Tuesday by a broad trough along the West Coast that will gradually lift inland with its base brushing across northern California and northwest Nevada Tuesday. This setup will continue to produce enhanced southwest winds especially across Inyo County and south central Nevada this afternoon with gusts between 30 and 40 mph. The main impact will be very high to extreme wildfire danger for these areas extending southward to the Spring Mountains and Sheep Range. Winds will remain elevated over Esmeralda, central Nye and Lincoln counties Tuesday as the trough lifts away to the north for continued very high wildfire danger for those areas. Temperatures will climb 2-3 degrees each day today and Tuesday across the region. The Excessive Heat Warning will go into effect beginning at 10 AM this morning and remains in effect until Saturday evening. It is worth noting that the Four Corners High will pull mid and high level moisture up from central Mexico which will bring us some scattered cloud cover with bases above 15 kft MSL. It probably won`t provide much relief from the heat and may actually trap heat overnight and increase lows Tuesday night for some areas. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday. The big story during the extended period will continue to be the upcoming long-duration heatwave that will grip the Desert Southwest. Area-wide heat risk, or the potential for people to experience heat related impacts, will reach "high" or "very high" by Wednesday and persist through at least Saturday. These levels of heat risk mean that much or all of the population, including Las Vegas, will be at substantial risk for heat related illnesses and impacts. How is this risk calculated and why the attention on heat in the desert in June? We will approach the discussion today answering those questions. Consideration 1: High temperatures. High temperatures are enough to be their own headline, with records expected to be broken across much of the area beginning Tuesday and through possibly into the weekend. See the climate section for record information for our climate sites, but all of these locations and many more are expected to be broken multiple days through Saturday...and not just a degree or two, as much as 5-6 degrees in cases like Barstow and Bishop. Consideration 2: Low temperatures. How cool the overnight period gets plays a significant role in ability for heat effects to compound over a period of time, both health related and infrastructure demands. Beginning as early as tomorrow morning, lows will struggle to fall below 80 degrees for the desert and river valleys and by mid week, struggle to fall below 90. This results in average temperatures through the 24 hour period above 100 degrees meaning AC units run basically all day and night, those without access to cooling experience no relief, and thus impacts increase. Again, this effect might be tolerated if happening over a day or so, but the forecast calls for several days of record breaking or near record minimum temperatures...potentially through the weekend. Consideration 3: Duration. Typically, heat waves that meet the above two considerations last for one or two days...three or more days, less than 6 times, and only once for 4 or more days (for KLAS specifically). Currently we are forecasting these conditions for *at least* 4 days, if not up to 6. Thus, the expectation is that impacts may initially be slow to build but increase significantly into the late week and weekend. Regarding impacts: The last time we experienced heat of this magnitude and duration was late June & early July 2013. During that event, southern Nevada saw nearly 30 fatalities and over 350 heat related injuries as well as temporary power outages. Some of those impacts were surely increased due to the 4th of July holiday period but nearly 2/3 of those fatalities occured while indoors...providing a clue that it isn`t just increased outdoor recreation that led to those impacts. Thus, impacts to expect this week... - Rapid onset of dehydration, hyperthermia, heat cramps, heat stroke & heat exhaustion. - Extreme risk for children and pets if left in a hot vehicle even for minutes. - High demand for power consumption due to continued AC usage. Possible power outages and/or failing air conditioning units, providing inadequate daytime and nighttime cooling. There are more considerations that go into evaluating heat risk including vulnerability but given the magnitude of this expected heat wave, most if not all of the population will be at high or very high risk. The lengthy breakdown of the heat concerns in this discussion are specifically intended to contextualize this expected heat event vs others and to bust the myth that this is typical for the Desert Southwest. It isn`t. &&

Try walking barefoot outside there.. yikes.

Got Pfizer #2 this morning. Was jabbed pretty high up on the arm this time... barely below the bone. Actually did not feel the needle as much this time though. There was a woman who looked like she was in her 80s who was with someone, presumably her daughter. I overheard what they were saying, and it was actually the older lady's first dose. She was saying that she thinks she is the last one out of her group of older friends to get it. Ya think?

The numbers aren't that high, but the UK has actually had a significant increase in cases even with their high vaccination rate. Can likely blame the Delta variant for that, which has taken over there. Should the Delta variant take over in the US, then not out of the question that cases start rising here in coming months. Parts of the US are very vaccinated, but others not so much.

Even if it did, 9 inches falling in 1 day isn't the most effective way to end this thing. Need smaller rains falling more frequently.

Good point. I think that area actually has been drier than areas a little farther south, but maybe not quite as dry as it seems.

Waukegan's 2021 precip deficit has reached 10". Quite amazing for only about 5.5 months into the year.

Much drier feel to the air today, and it will only get drier coming up. High dews are good for helping to jack up CAPE, and achieving 80+ is always interesting. Other than that, give me the dry heat.

Wouldn't be shocked if lows dip into the upper 40s around here on Thursday morning.

Euro still has a pocket of dews in the 20s on Wednesday. Impressive.

Through the 12th, ORD is running +8.8. From a departure standpoint, this looks like it will be the peak temperature departure, given the look of the upcoming pattern and daily averages that are still rising. If the 13th-30th merely comes in as average, then June would still finish in the warmest top 10. The pattern in the extended does not look particularly cool on the whole, so I'd say there's a very good chance to finish among the top 10 warmest, with some chance of getting into the top 5.

I found your answer. There was a disparity of 22 days in 3 different years. 1953: Chicago 90+: 42 days Detroit 90+: 20 days 1975: Chicago 90+: 26 days Detroit 90+: 4 days 1980: Chicago 90+: 27 days Detroit 90+: 5 days

It hit 100 in all of those years as well, except for 1959.

Performed a quick little research project. This is a bit arbitrary, but I took a look at years that had at least 5 days of 90+ in Chicago by June 15 (2021 has 7). It has now happened 26 times. In those years, the final 90 degree count had a wide range from 12 days (1920) to 47 days (1988). A handful of years finished in the teens with the vast majority finishing with 20+ days.

Good chance of being into double digit number of 90 degree days by the end of the month, with the higher end scenario being well into the teens. I can't remember the exact average number of 90s per year in Chicago, but I know the approximate number, and I'll say there will be a higher than average number of 90 degree days.

Broke the daily precip record. Also, biggest calendar day precip at ORD since Oct 22 of last year.

And even after that, ORD is still nearly 8" in the hole for the year. Puts in perspective the chore it will be to get out of the hole.

Didn't make 100 at LAF today, but there will be more opportunities if the sensor keeps running so far above everybody else.

Light rain that didn't even wet all of the pavement. Still a near shutout so far in June.

Today is the 6th 90+ degree temp at ORD this month. This is only the 3rd time that there have been 6 days AOA 90 in the first 12 days of June, the other years being 1933 and 1963. You have to remember that way back when, the official observation site was located quite close to the lake compared to now. But this is still a pretty impressive stat as the official observation site for the city has been located well inland for about the past 80 years.

Currently 96 at LAF, vying to become the first 100 degree day since 2012.

In just the few days since I posted this, there is noticeably more yellow/brown now. We'll see if we can get anything today.

I just noticed there were 3 tornadoes in southwest Indiana on June 8. These were the first tornadoes in Indiana this year. Only a few other years made it to June without one.

Any plans to look into RFD? Cause I think their all-timer of 112 could come under threat if we get a big heat wave.