Hoosier

Mother drought gets angry when people proclaim her end. Just kidding. Multiple opportunities on the horizon but I do think it's possible that some area underwhelms a bit... like 2" spread out over 5 days or something.

Missouri is bucking the national trend with covid. They had their highest daily case number today since early February. They are behind the national average in vaccinations, but still almost 40% of the state is fully vaxxed (that is 40% of all Missouri residents, not 40% of vaccine eligible). Combine that with prior infections and now being in summer, it's "impressive" to see rising numbers. The deck is stacked against it in multiple ways and it still found a way to happen.

About Missouri They had their highest daily case number today since early February. They are behind the national average in vaccinations, but still almost 40% of the state is fully vaxxed. Combine that with prior infections and now being in summer, it's "impressive" to see rising numbers. The deck is stacked against it in multiple ways and it still found a way to happen.

That condo collapse in Florida is bad. Almost looks like the federal building in OKC after the bombing. Happened at about the worst time of day too. Hate to say it but it could end up being one of the worst accidental building collapses in US history.

I remember you saying that you were going to get vaccinated (or at least strongly leaning toward it). Are you reconsidering now? There's a lot of noise out there about the covid vaccines. I think it helps to go back to the basics. Historically, post-vaccine side effects tend to occur more on a days or weeks time scale. Tends to be does not necessarily mean always will be, and it's true that the long term data hasn't been established because of the unfortunate circumstance of being in a public health emergency. Without that long term data, I'd be more nervous about taking a booster, especially if a booster is going to be needed relatively soon. Hopefully no long term problems come to light, but if something does, then it would stand to reason that it may be more of a risk if you get jabbed over and over and over again.

Absolutely dumping with this area moving through. Doesn't look like this will last too long though.

LOT issued a Flash Flood Watch generally south of I-80.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1231 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1149 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE EMINGTON 40.95N 88.32W 06/24/2021 M3.39 INCH LIVINGSTON IL PUBLIC PRIVATE WEATHER STATION REPORTS 3.39 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER 1 HOUR AND 45 MINUTES. ALMOST 2.5 INCHES OCCURRED IN 1 HOUR. && $$ WSL

Or not. Struggled to make it in here. Think I'll sit back and watch.

I think it's an interesting moral argument about whether we should be using many millions of vaccine doses on kids in this country or sending those doses to countries who are way behind on vaccinating their adult population. We alone wouldn't solve the world's problem of lagging vaccinations, but it would help. There is the link between the vaccines and heart inflammation in younger people, and the risk of bad outcomes from covid is less as you get younger and younger. Who's to say there won't be a higher incidence of heart inflammation from the vaccine in kids under 12? I know they are giving a lower dose in trial to that age group, so maybe that will make a difference or maybe it won't. I wonder if different doses were tried in the 12-17 age group.

Western Kankakee county getting hit hard now, and it's moving slowly.

Incoming line should pour nicely. Gentlemen start your engines.

UKMET placement is pretty far north. Might be a little dangerous to bet on a northernmost outcome imo.

For precise details, sure. But as mentioned earlier, we are seeing a signal for really big amounts on much of the guidance, CAM and non-CAM alike. And I think it's useful to illustrate that as long as every run of every cycle isn't getting posted.

Totals through 84 hrs

00z 3 km NAM... through 12z Saturday If these excessive amounts occur and find their way to an urban area, look out

00z NAM continues with a bullseye of at least 15" Gotta say, I have been watching models for 20+ years and I can't remember too many times when a model showed those kind of amounts on that time scale in the Midwest. A hurricane near the coast, sure. And it has been on multiple runs.

It's impressive to see the CAMs and the non-CAMs/globals showing the potential for a swath or two of extreme rain amounts. They are models with different capabilities/parametrizations, and yet both are suggesting the possibility that something pretty high-end could unfold somewhere.

FDA to add warning about rare heart inflammation to Moderna, Pfizer vaccine fact sheets A CDC safety panel has determined there is a "likely association" between the Pfizer and Moderna shots and cases of myocarditis and pericarditis in vaccine recipients. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/23/fda-warning-moderna-pfizer-495717

schoeppeya has always given me DavidK vibes for some reason. Kind of a similar style.

That looks a bit broadbrush. In reality I bet we see area(s) of embedded higher amounts, but the issue is that it's practically impossible to pinpoint that this far out.

Yeah, contracting covid now is currently a lower probability for everybody compared to a few months ago, vaccinated or not. But for someone who does catch it now, they shouldn't expect to fare better than they would have a few months ago unless their vaccination status has changed during that time.

NAM has a bullseye of like 20". Could be overdone but in this high/persistent pwat regime, you never know. Certainly think this setup is capable of producing double digit rains somewhere.

NAM has pockets of 10" through 84 hrs.

There is until there isn't