Hoosier

ENH risk in the west/southwest sub.

If all the people who died from covid at home or in the nursing homes in NYC were in the hospital instead, they probably would've had bigtime capacity issues.

I think I sense the sarcasm dripping from this post.

Much of what I post is numbers based. If that came off as "spinning things as bad", well, things were bad over the fall and winter. I am fully vaxxed and living a normal life. I know you didn't get vaccinated but on the macro scale, wouldn't you say it is important to monitor the efficacy of the vaccines over time?

It's alive it's alive

Who says I am scared? Just discussing what is going on.

Israel has 57% of everybody fully vaxxed (over 80% of adults). That is better than the US as a whole. Certain states are higher but most aren't.

The emerging data out of Israel suggests that it may not be close to no chance of developing covid for people who have been vaccinated, once Delta dominates to the point that it almost becomes the only variant in town. There was a substantial decrease in vaccine efficacy against symptomatic illness from May to June in Israel. The good news is that the efficacy against severe covid showed barely any drop. They were the first ones to announce to the world that there was a signal of myocarditis/pericarditis in younger vaccinated people, so I'm going to assume they are on the right track with this analysis too (maybe the exact drop in vaccine efficacy can be debated). We are not really tracking mild breakthrough covid cases in this country anymore, so who knows what our country's scientists will be able to say about this.

I believe Gerald Ford's motorcade was in the O'Hare area around the time that a tornado passed by on 3/12/1976.

Been some changes in the setup since I made the thread.

Low at ORD today is a rather warm 77. Not a record though -- the low was 82 on this date in 2012.

The thing is that it's 150-200 deaths per day in June/July, which you would pretty much never see with the flu at that time of year. Would be nice to keep the deaths at couple hundred per day or less as we move through fall/winter, but I have no idea if that is realistic. Fall-winter 2021-22 will be a good learning experience as it will be the first fall-winter that we go through with such a high level of vaccination and basically everybody being wide open -- North, South, East, West, warm climates, cold climates.

The derecho caused huge losses. The before/after satellite images of the crop destruction were pretty stunning. That derecho was on August 10, so basically too late for the crop loss to have any feedback on summer temps.

I looked up that South Dakota record. Looks like it happened in the central part of the state, which is toward the western fringe of the corn belt. I don't know about the synoptics of that day, but it's probably safe to assume there were downsloping winds on that day for it to get so hot.

How many ex homes you got?

We talk about the corn every so often in the Lakes/OV sub. Where the impact of that really shows up is in the frequency of high end max temps... say 100+. It has become increasingly difficult to get those temps. If there is one area of the country where the all-time highest state temperatures are probably going to be fairly safe for a while, it would be the Midwest. Most of those all-time state records were set in the 1930s. There were some isolated areas of the Ohio Valley that flirted with 110 degrees in the drought summer of 2012, but it took the worst drought since the Dust Bowl in those areas to do it and those readings are still generally several degrees short of the all-time state records.

Hope everyone enjoyed their 4th. 89'd at ORD. Did make it to 90 at Midway. Here's an odd fact. Chicago has officially had highs in the 90s on the 4th a total of 27 times, but has never had a high of 92 degrees on that date.

This is kind of far out for a severe weather thread, but there isn't much going on and it looks like a synoptically evident severe setup on paper. We look to have a respectable surface low (by July standards) that will move through the region, accompanied by sufficient moisture and a plume of at least modestly steep mid level lapse rates. Should have some nice flow aloft/shear to work with as well. Putting it all together, I think the potential is there for a significant severe wx event, but obviously we'll have a better idea as the time approaches.

I've been outside much of the day and noticed that the sky looked off. Was wondering if it was smoke.

A logical guess, but it was an unfamiliar IP address that logged into the admin panel and initiated the upgrade. Left us puzzled.

I have been blessed with 7 badges.

The kinks with the upgrade are getting worked out. If anyone notices something that isn't working/accessible, post it here.

Anyone on mobile having an issue getting to menu options/logging in? I don't see anything for that. Here is the direct login link if anyone does need it: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/login

Appears to be a ghost upgrade. There was no heads up and nobody knows who did it. Not a fan so far.