Hoosier

13k+ new cases and 148 deaths in Florida. They started surging in earnest just a couple weeks ago so at least expect the avg daily deaths to get worse before they get better.

I saw some modeling the other day (can't remember where) that had this wave peaking in the US in October with about 800 deaths per day on average and then dropping. That was a "most likely" scenario with a range of scenarios on the table. It will be interesting to see what happens in schools in the next month or two. More schools will be doing in person learning than last year. Even if the same mitigation measures are in place as last year, which may not be the case in some areas, they may not hold up quite as well in the face of a more transmissable variant.

Why fix what wasn't broken.

I want to read about meteors.

I mean, I think we sort of knew that it was going to unfold this way. I'm not talking about nailing exact numbers and trajectories, but that we would reach a point where vaccine demand would slow down a lot and covid numbers would reach some level and then struggle to keep dropping. It is what it is. There is an option out there for people who want it.

Sure there is seasonality. But think of this. Over 10 million people have been vaccinated in Florida, which is just about half of the state. Plus whatever degree of immunity exists from being previously infected (though I have read that Delta may be able to better reinfect people who previously had covid, so who knows). It's a much different playing field than last summer.

The number out of Florida today ranks among the top case days from last summer's surge there, when there was no vaccine. This is not to speak negatively of the vaccines. It just shows that Delta is very good at getting to people.

And things will probably pick up again in fall/winter (maybe focused more in the northern states at that time?). We are pretty much in the learn to live with it stage. Actually I am curious to see what will happen in just a month or two as kids return to school. It has been thought that schools are not necessarily prime sources of transmission, but there will be more schools doing in-person learning than last year and there's a possibility that mitigation measures that were previously effective in schools may not hold up as well against delta.

LOT actually put the smoke word in for some areas.

You know we are flipping to a western trough/mild east in time for December.

Basically every state on the rise (some small, some large). Pretty "impressive." Never say never but I don't intend on reopening the thread unless the situation gets really crazy, which would probably take a sudden vaccine failure or something.

Coming next to Florida. No, just kidding. Interesting to compare 2 very populated states -- Florida and Texas. Both in the southern US, but Florida has been seeing a much more dramatic increase in cases. Florida is actually running a bit ahead of Texas in terms of % vaccinated. Not sure what's going on. Perhaps population density explains it a little as Texas is more spread out, but probably some other factors playing a bigger role.

How dare you insult Jonger over his health. He has made positive changes and if you have seen a pic of him lately, you would see that he is not the face of the beetus.

No clue. But, it turns out those numbers put out by that state health official were not accurate. It's 7 kids in ICU with only 2, not 10, on life support. https://www.wtva.com/content/news/Dobbs-says-10-children-on-life-support-due-to-COVID-574822821.html

Clearly you are paying for last year's derecho.

I feel like there is too much blanket statement in your last sentence. Delta is less of a threat in large part because we have almost 50% of the United States vaccinated, and the vaccines work very well against it. I have not really seen compelling evidence that it acts weaker than other versions of covid in unvaccinated people.

I'm going to assume it's true that there are 10 kids in MS on life support. It's a low number in an absolute sense, but it surprised me a bit given that children have a very, very low risk of getting so seriously ill from covid. And it's not like Mississippi has thousands of people in the hospital with covid, so it's 10 out of a relatively low number. I agree with you about the harmful effects on kids. I also don't think it's good to have completely intractable thinking on this. Maybe, just maybe, the delta variant is a bit more dangerous for kids than the wild covid. If that's the case and if mitigation strategies are relaxed too much in schools, then there's gonna be some issues.

I wonder if this headline will get a few clicks 10 children on life support as Mississippi sees surge in delta variant cases https://www.wapt.com/amp/article/10-children-on-life-support-as-mississippi-sees-surge-in-delta-variant-cases/37010954

Hmm. I am able to mark the individual forums as read.

Takes some pretty bad luck to be fully vaccinated at an outdoor event and still catch covid. But note that those who had the vaccines used in the US had mild cases. 6 fully vaccinated people who attended an outdoor wedding caught the Delta variant, but the ones with Pfizer and Moderna shots didn't get very sick https://news.yahoo.com/6-fully-vaccinated-people-caught-154610774.html

Oh hey. Btw, Florida is getting in on the case surge now. I'm not going to address the mass death stuff. I posted it to highlight the ventilator stuff.

This number really jumped out at me... at a hospital in Springfield, MO, 91% of patients in ICU are on a ventilator. Obviously that is an extraordinarily high percentage and Missouri just about leads the country in percentage of cases being Delta, but it would be interesting to check other surging states to see if they have also observed a percentage increase of people on ventilators. It suggests that Delta is a more dangerous variant, particularly to unvaccinated people, or that these people are waiting longer to seek treatment. The article says that many of those on ventilators at that hospital are in their 20s to 40s, so at least they have age on their side. But you're in pretty bad shape if you need to be on a ventilator, whether you're 28 or 88. https://www.wrcbtv.com/story/44285978/surprising-amount-of-deaths-will-soon-occur-in-these-us-regions-from-increased-covid19-cases-expert-says

The warmup will be nice.

Don't know if you have seen this before, but check out this sounding from Bangladesh. The CAPE/shear combo on here would rival anything in the United States. I have seen observed soundings or forecast soundings with 8000-10000+ J/kg of CAPE (usually in a zone from Nebraska to Illinois, which gets dewpoint assistance from all the crops) but the shear is typically weak. Having 50 kts of flow at 500 mb along with 9000 J/kg CAPE is insane.

About 10 years ago there was a supercell in rural northwest IN that produced softball size hail and winds of 100 mph. In the same area. The crop damage was massive and the relatively small number of homes that were affected had a lot of roof/siding/window damage. I can't even imagine something like that. It must have felt like a military assault. Just think about anybody who was caught outside or driving in that. Must have been scary.