Hoosier

I thought your original post from days ago was implying that this was going to be a good snowstorm for Chicago metro. My apologies if I took it wrong.

On that subject, the CC forum has been a hoot lately.

Are you actually pumping your chest about possibly getting some flakes in February?

I can't say for sure, but I don't recall seeing any big losses in/around the Great Lakes on the 1991-2020 snowfall averages vs 1981-2010. Some places gained a little and some places lost a little. Chicago's average snowfall went up by about 2" on the 1991-2020 average, without a meaningful location change as the official observations have been taken at O'Hare Airport since 1980 (though exact observation site has moved around on the grounds of O'Hare over the years). You're right that a good deal of our subforum can get away with warmth more easily and still receive okay, if not good amounts of snowfall. We just saw an example of that in January this year when a number of places (Detroit included) put up a torch January and were near to even a bit snowier than average.

After careful consideration, your request has been denied.

12z Euro would certainly support a potential window of high wind warning criteria winds in parts of the LOT cwa (especially southeast 1/3 or so) and much of the IWX cwa.

As far as the wind, there is a zone of 925 mb winds of 50 to possibly 55 kts on Thursday. Assuming the system deepens about as progged, it should lead to a solid wind advisory event with some areas possibly approaching high wind warning criteria.

Plenty of confidence now in a dynamically cooled setup allowing for a decent band of snow accumulations, as a negatively tilted shortwave moves through the area with fairly rapid surface low deepening (bombogenesis-like?). The main snow band looks to avoid the vast majority of posters here, but at least some will get in on it. With that being the case, I figured we could make this one an all-emcompassing thread as some decent rains look to occur on the warm side, along with a period of gusty winds given the robust deepening and relatively quick movement through the region.

I think ORD actually pulled off the biggest snow in April thing in 2018 or 2019. And I know Detroit's top snowstorm on record happened in April. All this mild wx that we've been having and will have could actually give a small boost to any winter storm that manages to occur here later in the season, as long as the airmass isn't complete marginal trash. Talking about the lake temps running above average.

I'm gonna laugh or cry if my biggest snow comes in March, or especially April.

850 mb temps were barely below 0C. That's all anyone needs to know.

I'm probably more impressed by the earthquake. Lol

I don't know. When the high is only 90 and the low is 78, because the low is elevated due to clouds and wind?

Op GFS has almost no snow here through the run, which takes us to Feb 22. That in itself wouldn't be that crazy, but it is when adding in the context of what this winter has been like so far.

Fake cold

GFS keep trying to do a little something with the system right after the cutter. Doesn't seem to have a ton of support though.

It's almost like it's become personal.

This system is cutoff, but gets kicked out rather quickly and takes on a nice negative tilt w/good sfc low deepening as a result. Should have enough cold air for a band of wet snow even if the strengthening ends up being a bit more muted... within reason.

I went to my favorite car wash and there were like 15 cars in line. Was like nope, not waiting.

The thing about that year is that the January was pretty much the complete opposite of this year.

We should go into a Nino later this year. Whether it develops in time to impact summer and in what way remains to be seen. Nino summers can be cooler but not always. 2002 is a good example of a warm summer during a Nino.

Don't tell me you'll only care about it if it shifts southeast.

Does anybody really even care about the late week system?

I now have the line in my backyard of snowcover/no snowcover that matches up with which area gets sun.

My post was a little tongue in cheek of course, as it takes a pretty perfect set of circumstances to get something like 2012. Back then we were in a 2nd year Nina, while we're currently in a 3rd year Nina. Here are January 2012 and January 2023 temp anomalies (note the scales are different). Both very warm in the central-eastern US, with more widespread warmth in 2012. Now, February 2012 torched pretty good. I don't think we will get a repeat of this magnitude of northern US warmth, even if the anomaly placement of cool west/warm east ends up happening by month's end.