Hoosier

To my earlier point, here's some data. Obviously the definition/cutoff of an "elite" snowfall winter has some subjectivity, but taking a look at the top 10 snowiest for Chicago, 9 out of 10 had high single digit or double digit snowfall totals by December 15. The one that didn't was 1966-67, which only had 3.0" by December 15, and it took the #1 snowstorm of all-time in January 1967 to be in the mix to make it a very snowy season. Total snow in 1966-67 was 5th highest on record.

Was making a general point about slower than average starts and not focusing on those 9 years.

The way I look at it is that a very slow start would make it difficult to end up with an elite winter snowfall-wise, if not taking that off the table entirely. Can still end up with a decent/snowier than avg winter, just not top tier.

Looks like PD is where it's at.

One of you is definitely right.

December has pretty much been a trainwreck lately. The last time Chicago had one snowier than average was 2016, and even that one had melting/dwindling snow on Christmas. We will get a good one again... eventually, lol

I don't think cold air will be a problem overall, but am concerned about how much activity there will be coming up.

Won't amount to much in non-lake effect areas, but Sunday looks good for a burst of snow.

Felt kinda nasty with the chill and wind today. Guess I'm not used to it yet.

Reminder about the lunar eclipse tonight. It's kind of a special one. You have to go back to before the time of Galileo for a partial one of such a long duration.

Congrats on the new job! It'll be great to have you back in the region.

Unforgettable day. Was still in LAF back then and there were like 6 tornadoes in the county. There was an EF3 that started in the far southeastern corner of LAF... went mostly through an industrial area (and it was a Sunday) before heading into rural areas so that one could've been quite a bit worse on a little different path.

Yeah that's pretty wild. #1 beat #2 by 7+ inches. That is in contrast to the top storms for Chicago, where the top 4 or 5 are all pretty tightly clustered.

What is #2 for Minneapolis?

Getting enough snow for some very minor whitening of colder surfaces/objects.

So as we head toward winter, here's a question for everyone. Have you ever given thought as to what the biggest snowstorm is that you could realistically ever see at your location? Obviously there are a couple things to look at when trying to come up with some answer. One is to check what the biggest storms have produced regionally, and another is to look at the biggest storms at (or near) your current location. I am going to focus on Chicago since that is close enough to me. The record snowstorm for them is 23", with a few other storms that have produced at least 20". I have wondered if we could ever get a 30" storm at ORD, which would be a whopping 7" above the record storm. I see that as a very tall order, but not impossible, as there is precedence for storms producing over 2 feet of snow in other locations in northeast IL and elsewhere in the region. There is an overall trend toward more precipitation over time. Factoring that in, I do think the record of 23" will be broken in my lifetime (assuming I live reasonably long) but it is probably more likely to be a 24 or 25 inch storm than 30 inches. I have mentioned this before, but I view biggest snowstorm, hottest temp and coldest temp as the holy trinity of weather records for a given location (record lowest max, record highest min, biggest rainfall are not unimportant, but I don't put those on the same level). Out of biggest snowstorm, hottest temp, and coldest temp, I'd actually give a slight edge to biggest snowstorm being the most likely one to be broken... even over hottest temp.

Kind of hard to pick out where any higher totals may be. Looks like there could actually be a couple zones.

Snowing pretty good now.

As someone who lives somewhat closer to Lake Michigan, always have to take a look at potential negative consequences of marine influence at this time of year. Lake temps are still in the mid 50s from the shore all the way out to mid lake, which would be a problem for areas near the lake in a number of setups. BUT in this case, the progged path of the surface low means that the flow never really turns onshore around Chicago and into extreme northwest Indiana. So that concern is taken off the table this time.

Nice trends for sure. Would be kind of messy if something like that pans out. A lot of trees still have a lot of leaves. Trees on my block really just started dropping leaves in the past day or so.

Izzi bringing the excitement for tomorrow Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 823 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 823 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Friday: Water vapor imagery shows another well defined vort max near western Lake Superior/NE MN early this evening. Guidance is in decent agreement on pinwheeling this wave a full 180 degrees around the upper low, placing it over eastern IA Friday afternoon. This places our CWA in a region of positive vorticity advection and large scale synoptic ascent tomorrow afternoon (during peak heating). Looking at the various forecast models, not really seeing much variability in forecast soundings across our area tomorrow afternoon. Those forecast soundings have "the look" that is typically associated with our more impressive convective snow shower events. That look includes steep low level lapse rates from the surface to above 700mb, with many of the models explicitly forecasting a MAUL (moist absolutely unstable layer), which is associated with significant instability. Low CCL (convective condensation levels) with cloud tops between 15-20kft, with temps within the cloud layer ranging from near 0C at the base of the cloud to around -25 to -30C at cloud top. Appears to be a classic sounding for big, fat aggregate wet snow flakes (1"+ diameter) given the deep ascent through a wide range in temps that include a near freezing level to moisture the flakes and maximize clumping (aggregation). The heaviest snow showers will be scattered about and much like summertime convection there will be the haves and have nots with respect to who gets hit. Areas that get hit by the more intense snow showers could see a quick inch or so of wet snow come down in 30 minutes or less. Air temps in the heavier snow showers should drop to near freezing, so if the higher rates materialize as forecast, then there could be periods where snow sticks even on roadways in the heavier snow showers. This should be more the exception than the rule, but that could make it more hazardous with varying conditions over short distances. Visibility in the heavier snow showers should drop to 1/4SM to 1/2SM and much like this evening, the strong cells could produce graupel and mix down some higher wind gusts as well. Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but with the top of the convectively unstable layer just barely above -20C, think the chances of sufficient charge separation for lightning is low (though not zero). Will be issuing an SPS this evening to raise awareness of the potential impacts tomorrow. Updated forecast grids are out, text forecast products will be out shortly, followed not to long by an SPS. - Izzi

Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle. We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle. The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly.

By the way, the record daily snowfall for Chicago for 11/14 is 0.8". That is the 4th lowest calendar day snowfall record in the month of November, so it's sort of a low hanging fruit. We'll see if it ends up being in play.

I like a general 1-3" in the main swath, though would not be surprised to see some locally higher amounts. Looks like there could be a period of decent rates and there are some relatively steep lapse rates aloft to work with. Question is how far south this extends.

Friday looks pretty solid from a showery/squally perspective.