Hoosier

JB might say enjoy the torch, it's the only torch you've got. It's going to be nice. Often a mild period in December is just in the 40s or 50s and it still has a cool feel (especially if it's windy). If it's not going to snow, then might as well not bother with middling warmth.

Top tier airmass in the warm sector. Daily records would be in play for Chicago.

That's why I like the list I put together last night. Latest measurable snow is good to look at, but here are a couple of hypotheticals... what if 0.1" fell at the observation site but it wasn't measured? Or if 0.1" fell a half mile down the road, that is very nearby. I'm not saying that pertains to this year, but it could happen in some years. Fact is, it's a bad start this year and it's only getting worse. Claiming otherwise is spin. Yes, it's still early and yes it could even turn around and become a pretty good winter. Nobody is saying that it can't.

At least we have the end of the 00z GFS to pin our hopes on.

Here's a little different take on the Chicago futility thus far. These are the years with 0.5" or less on the season through 12/15: T: 2012 T: 1965 0.1": 2001 0.2": 1998 0.2": 1993 0.2": 1938 0.3": 1999 0.3": 1984 0.3": 1948 0.3": 1943 0.4": 1939 0.4": 1912 0.5": 2011 0.5": 1918

Getting into rarefied air now.

It is obvious that most of us are going to have to depend on what happens in the few days before Christmas to have a shot at a white Christmas. Not going to be able to lay snow down well in advance and have it survive.

I almost get more excited to post about futility than snow. . I'd much rather have a significant storm though.

Gotta hold off the drought.

If you live in or around Chicago, then you know how much December has sucked lately. It inspired me to look up some December stats to see how bad of a run it's been. Guess what? The last 3 Decembers (so that's 2018-2020) each had under 3" of snow in Chicago. That is the first time on record with back to back to back sub 3" Decembers. There were a couple other times that it almost happened, but not quite.

Out of that list, 1973-74 by far turned around the most with 58.3". A couple other years finished snowier than average (1 of those was only a tick above average though). The rest had below average snow and some were really bad clunkers.

Ooh boy. Well, if that happens, I just might let out a beavis type rant in the complaint thread. Tired of crappy Decembers.

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago IL 127 PM CST Wed Dec 1 2021 /227 PM EST Wed Dec 1 2021/ ...A Look Back at the Climate for Meteorological Fall (September, October, November) 2021 for Chicago and Rockford... At Chicago, the average high temperature for the fall season was 64.9 degrees, which is 2.7 degrees above the 1991 to 2020 average. The average low temperature was 48.6 degrees, which is 3.1 degrees above normal. The mean temperature for the season was 56.8 degrees, which is 2.9 degrees above normal. A total of 7.71 inches of precipitation were recorded during the season, which is 1.33 inches below normal. Records established or tied during the fall months: The fall season of 2021 ranks as tied with 1927 and 1914 for the 8th warmest on record dating back to 1872. September: Tied with 1925 for the 5th warmest September on record since 1871. October: Tied 9th warmest October on record since 1872. * Record daily warmest minimum temperature of 70 degrees on the 10th. * Record daily precipitation of 1.85 inches on the 24th. November: 8th driest November on record since 1872 with 0.71 inches of precipitation. At Rockford, the average high temperature was 66.2 degrees, which is 4.6 degrees above normal. The average low temperature was 44.1 degrees, which is 2.1 degrees above normal. The mean temperature for the season was 55.1 degrees, which is 3.3 degrees above normal. A total of 6.27 inches of precipitation was recorded this past fall, which is 2.25 inches below normal. Records established or tied during the fall months: The fall season of 2021 ranks as the 8th warmest on record dating back to 1905. September: 9th warmest and 7th driest September on record since 1905. * Tied record daily warmest maximum temperature of 93 degrees on the 19th. * Record daily maximum temperature of 90 degrees on the 27th. October: 6th warmest October on record since 1905 with 57.9 degrees. * Record daily warmest minimum temperature of 67 degrees on the 2nd. * Tied record daily warmest minimum temperature of 67 degrees on the 10th. November: Tied 2nd driest November on record since 1905 with 0.38 inches of precipitation. $$ KJB

Once we get past Dec 4, this will become the year with the latest first measurable snow for Chicago since 2012. Had to wait until 12/20 of that year for the first measurable snow. Would appear that we won't have to wait that long this time.

Embarrassing that someone would even make that.

Did some flash research after you posted that. Chicago will finish without measurable snow in November (only a T), making it the first time on record that Chicago will go without measurable snow and Detroit will have 6"+ in November. As you might expect, the two cities typically follow each other somewhat closely... sucky Novembers tend to be sucky for both, good Novembers tend to be good for both, etc.

The look and feel of recent Decembers around here has been virtually indistinguishable from Tennessee. Hopefully we can improve upon that.

Is this bad?

This will be the first cooler than average month at ORD since July.

This will be only the 3rd time in the past 25 years that Chicago will finish November with less than 30" of precip on the year. The other 2 years that it happened were 2005 and 2012.

I will use a line that my dad used to say to me. How does it feel to want?

I've always thought that 1966 storm was underrated. It was November but right after Halloween, so pretty early in the season for something like that. Was a big Gulf low that took almost a due north track for a while. It snowed into Alabama.

The early November storm was a near miss for Chitown.

Doesn't look like wall to wall torching is in store imo, but some warm risks at times. That being said, the CFS has been going the wrong way. Hopefully it doesn't end up being as warm.

Season total was 5.4" on January 10. Ended up with 48.8", so it was a tremendous rally. Obviously the odds of a top tier snow season in any given year are pretty low to begin with. But if you're sitting at a couple inches in mid December or single digits well into January in Chicago... good luck ending up with 70 or 80 inches. Still early to be seriously discussing this stuff anyway. I have hope that December won't be a total disaster.