Hoosier

2nd latest measurable for Chicago is 12/16. Looks like we will make it past that, and the only one left standing in the way is 12/20 (2012)

But even worse.

Took a drive out to the damage area about 20 mins south of here shortly before sunset. Surprisingly the road was still closed with crews on scene and I was not able to get a close look. Assumed it would've been cleaned up enough by now. Looking back at radar images, there was a clear signature for a little while so it'll most likely be confirmed eventually.

No measurable snow at ORD today, so still no measurable snow yet for Chicago this season. It's really getting good (bad) now.

The likely one near Crown Point is a good candidate to come in as EF-0 or EF-1. BTW, would be the first December tornado in the LOT cwa since 1973 if confirmed.

Could possibly be well into the 60s (mid 60s?) in Chicago when the clock strikes midnight on Thursday. That reading will not hold through the rest of Thursday though.

I'm sure we'll see some. Going to take a while to sort through all the data/reports.

What happened last night, especially in Kentucky, is an absolute freakshow for this time of year. I did some digging and it looks like the deadliest December tornado in KY prior to this was back on December 4, 1925, with 2 fatalities.

Since there are really only 2 options at this point, here's some historical context: Last (E)F-4 tornado in Kentucky: 3/2/2012 Last (E)F-5 tornado in Kentucky: 4/3/1974

Bremen only has a couple hundred residents or so. As if Mayfield didn't tell us enough, you know it's bad when you see these rural/small town death tolls.

May have been a tornado to our south PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1128 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1000 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W CROWN POINT 41.42N 87.41W 12/10/2021 LAKE IN BROADCAST MEDIA MULTIPLE POWER POLES AND TREES DOWN ALONG FATHKE ROAD IN CROWN POINT. POSSIBLE TORNADO BASED ON SUBTLE TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE ON RADAR. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

Can hear the tornado siren, though tor warned portion is passing to my south.

Some incredible images tonight. Yikes on steroids.

For a little perspective on what we are looking at... The last time there was a "nocturnal" tornado in December in Indiana was on December 8, 1966. It occurred around dawn -- which is why I put nocturnal in quotation marks -- but that's good enough for me. Only looking at December nocturnal tornadoes and not including other winter months probably underestimates the frequency/rate of occurrence a bit, but you get the point. It's freaking unusual.

Concerning run. Really the main question for the LOT cwa later on is whether storms will be able to be rooted at the surface or close enough. As a previous LOT afd said, going to need frequent analysis of the environment later tonight.

^To that point, moisture return is coming along nicely with 60 degree dews currently into southern IL. Figuring out the threat level with northward extent is a bit tricky, but I generally agree with how and where SPC laid that out with the tight gradient of 2% and 5% tornado probs on the northern end around the I-80 region.

I don't know this for sure but I would imagine it is pretty rare to see these kind of probabilities (10% hatched tornado, 30% wind) north of the Ohio River for a nocturnal severe weather threat in the month of December. It looks like a dangerous environment though for anything that is rooted at or at least very near the surface. Deepening surface low should help keep the low levels fairly well mixed.

I believe it was a long sub 1" streak that got started in late Dec and went into March 2017.

The Sad Seven will become the Futile Five soon.

Agree, particularly south of I-80.

RC bringing the goods Attention for the rest of the long term turns to the potential for exceptional warmth by the middle of the work week. A summer-time magnitude 500 mb ridge will amplify into the central and eastern US. Ensemble mean 500 mb heights by Tuesday-Wednesday pushing or even exceeding 580 DM, with near 590 closer to Gulf is top of the charts daily max for the month of December at RAOB sites, along with forecast 850 mb temps into the mid teens C if not higher very rare for December at ILX and DVN. Sunday will see a nice recovery in temps to mid to upper 40s in return dry and breezy southwesterly flow. Monday will add a few-several degrees to highs as signal points toward no stratus issues yet. Question on Tuesday is the northward progress of a warm front arcing from deep low pressure over the High Plains. It`s also quite common to get low stratus in the warm frontal zone this time of year, so while still quite mild, official forecast of 50-57F range Tuesday is nothing too crazy. The low pressure deepening northward should surge the warm front north Tuesday night, setting the table for exceptional warmth next Wednesday (and probably Thursday as well). With dew points into the lower-mid 50s, highs in the lower-mid 60s are a good bet next Wednesday even if low clouds and sprinkles/drizzle. Upside potential for temps (upper 60s-70F?) would be tied to whether higher dew points on some of the models come to fruition. Should see the exceptional warmth end later Thursday behind a cold front passage. Little/no impactful weather is expected during the stretch of unseasonable warmth. For reference, next Wednesday (12/15), the record high for Chicago is 64 degrees and Rockford 58 degrees, both set in 1971. The current NBM forecast is already above the daily record for RFD! Castro

Here's a look at the high temps on those 77 December days that have reached 60+. 61% (47/77) of those days have been between 60-62. 60: 18 days 61: 13 days 62: 16 days 63: 7 days 64: 6 days 65: 5 days 66: 2 days 67: 3 days 68: 3 days 69: 1 day 70: 1 day 71: 2 days

There is a bit of stat manipulation going on there. You left out the part below. Most years do not produce 60+ in December. But in years when 60+ does occur, it's not uncommon to get more than 1 day. It's like the frequency of 100+ degree temps. If you went based on number of days that has occurred since records began, then Chicago would have a 100 degree day about once every 2 years. That does not happen in reality. In years when 100+ occurs, it's not uncommon to get more than 1 day. But I've found 35 of the past 149 full Decembers here in Chicago have produced a 60-deg temp--that's 23% of Decembers since 1871 which have recorded at least one 60-deg temp

The snowless start is more impressive at this point. But if Chicago can at least reach the mid-upper 60s, that will be pretty impressive for the time of year. Not all 60+ readings in December are the same.