Hoosier

Here's something you don't see from a survey every day (or ever?). The forward speed of this tornado in Iowa was around 100 mph.

See, this is the time to root against it. It ruins the record and anything that falls won't make it until Christmas anyway.

Some good points have been made throughout. Ultimately, the EF scale is a damage scale, and it's what we have right now. As mentioned previously, I would like to see an expansion to include more damage indicators as it would help remove some of the biases that currently exist with the scale. I'm not sure how feasible it is to include things like crops and trenches dug by a tornado though. Trees are part of the damage indicators and they grow out of the ground like crops do, so maybe something can be done with that lol

Here it is... tornado confirmed in MN for the first time in December. Also an EF2 in WI. Public Information Statement National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 ...Preliminary Tornado Information From December 15th... NWS La Crosse storm survey teams have confirmed two tornadoes so far from the December 15th severe weather event. An EF0 tornado occurred east/southeast of Lewiston Minnesota in Winona County. An EF2 tornado occurred north of Neillsville Wisconsin in Clark County. Complete damage survey results on these tornadoes will be released later today. $$ 04

This is all that's left for latest measurable snows in Chicago: 12/20/2012 12/16/1965 Second place will be displaced in a matter of hours.

Hold on tight. This is gonna be a close one.

Cool stuff. Good catch.

74 mph at the crib.

Amazing to do that in December and basically entirely north of 40N

60 mph gust at ORD.

I would like to see more usage of non-traditional damage indicators in the future. I know it's not as easy as buildings and what not, but it would fill in some gaps IF it could be done reliably. Fujita rated the Plainfield, IL tornado as F5 based on extreme corn damage, not structural damage. Weren't they working on some kind of update to the EF scale, or am I mistaken?

Then why didn't you post that sometime in the past few days? You literally had no comment on the rating until now. Not even a quick drive by post. So your thoughts after the fact don't mean much.

This is the first EF-4 in Kentucky since 3/2/2012, so almost 10 years ago.

Hope we don't see something like that with this one. The weenies need definitive answers.

Beating a record high by 11 degrees (at least) is boss.

Need over 200 mph for EF-5, right? 200 exactly won't do it?

Make that 48/48

Much of the snowpack is probably going to get eaten alive fairly quickly. For example, it's currently 45/45 at MSP with fog. Classic snow eater.

Not comparing the two setups, and obviously we don't know how this one will play out yet (maybe it will underperform), but to the point of getting unusual outcomes, I think back on the 10/26/2010 system and what that did. The severe wx initiated in the wee hours of the 26th. I think the first tornado happened like 4 am, and then it just started ripping tornadoes all morning. Vast majority of the tornadoes were weak but it's basically unheard of to get a tornado outbreak initiating/occurring at that time of day in this part of the country. Strange and rare things can happen when the ingredients are there, regardless of the time of day or time of year. Will be interesting to watch.

My jaw is still on the floor from that SPC outlook. With highly anomalous setups can come highly anomalous outcomes though.

Absolute insanity to get a moderate risk that far north in the middle of December. Wow.

About the only "negative" factor I can come up with is that it's mid-December and not a couple months earlier. Trees without leaves can handle more wind than trees with leaves. That being said, it's not going to prevent this from having a pretty high impact. Expect a ton of power outages and tree damage in the sub.

GFS actually has some areas of gusts in excess of 80 mph.

Gino makes a good point. The wind direction for this is a bit unusual. Typically it is more southwest or west when you're talking about these kinds of gusts. But it will be S or maybe SSW before veering later. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 845 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021 Forecast looks to be on track and no big changes planned to going forecast this evening. An highly anomalous weather pattern looks poised to break both the record warm low and record high tomorrow and potentially break Thursday`s record high at midnight tomorrow evening. While the record warm temperatures will be noteworthy, the potential exists for a rare synoptic damaging southerly wind event tomorrow evening. The 00z NAM looks very similar to other guidance and previous runs with 988mb low over the central High Plains early tomorrow afternoon and quickly deepening it to 975mb as it moves rapidly northeast to around Duluth by midnight. The fast movement and rapid deepening will result in very strong pressure falls to our north while very strong low level jet of 50-60kt. It seems likely that as temperatures remain stead or even inch up a degree or two Wednesday evening and in response to the very strong pressure falls to our north that some of the very high momentum air just off the surface will likely be transported down in gusts that could exceed 50kt at times. While the threat of 50kt+ gusts exists over most of the CWA, the greater chances certainly look to lie north of I-80, where the high wind watch is in effect. Wind headlines will be coordinated with neighboring office to the east and issued for northwest Indiana overnight tonight. In addition to the synoptic high winds, a narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection should accompany the cold front in our area late in the evening. Whether or not this line has any lightning, it will likely be capable of transporting 50kt+ gusts to the surface as well. - Izzi

I believe we are going to see a large power outage event from these winds. A wide area is under the gun with several big metro areas included. And in some of these areas, it's not just borderline/questionable high wind warning criteria... it will be met easily. Big difference between having 55 mph winds vs. 70 or 75 mph.