Hoosier

Agree. I'd actually give roughly 50/50 odds of somebody pulling 12", especially near the lake. Again, not the greatest setup in terms of thermodynamics/inversion heights, but it goes on for a number of hours.

21z RAP is pretty sweet around here. Approaching double digits and still snowing at end of run.

No watch here, but am fairly confident in 6"+. Even if thermals/precip type are an issue early on (which I'm not convinced of), the lake enhancement/effect should deliver and push totals over 6"

I could argue 6-10", highest near the lake. I could, but I decline at this time.

Post the full storm when it's available.

Well, at least becoming more confident in avoiding significant mixing around here. This almost feels like a watered down version of the progression from December 1998 into January 1999. Had the awful December followed by the storm when 1999 rolled in.

There is probably no circumstance where I would bother shoveling 0.7"

I'm not saying crazy high ratios, but I think something like 12:1 is doable closer to the lake. Lower to start and higher toward the end.

Yeah, but the 10:1 and Kuchera maps are basically the same from about Chicago into nearby northwest IN. I don't know about that.

Kuchera is kind of screwing the immediate metro. I say kind of because it's still a good hit. Wonder if ratios may be a bit better though...

Chicago is gonna get nailed on this run.

I feel like a top rule in modelology is to expect an amped 18z NAM run at some point leading up to a storm.

I was expecting rain flirting with Milwaukee when I read that post. Good thing it's not that bad.

Even the front end could be good, but it's a bit too early to lock that in as it wouldn't take a huge north shift to put the better snows just out of his area. As far as the lake enhancement/effect, water temps are currently in the low 40s. I don't expect much of a change between now and Jan 1st given that the current airmass isn't all that cold. So using a water temp in the low 40s and progged 850 mb temps, it eventually results in delta T getting into the upper teens C. It's too bad that the airmass isn't a bit colder but that is plenty good for some decent enhancement.

That would easily be double digits near the lake when factoring in improving ratios by the latter part of the storm. There have been better lake enhanced setups than this, but it's pretty decent and I see the lake locally adding several inches to the synoptic totals.

The 00z Euro may be a little cranked up.

Heck of a lake enhancement signal on there.

Believe it or not, the last time there was a 3" snowfall on New Year's Day in Chicago was back in 1984 (recall that the bulk of the storm in 1999 occurred on the 2nd). And the calendar day record may be lower than you'd think... 5.0"

imo, that run would be satisfactory enough if it went out farther. Upper levels don't look terrible. And a nice moisture train by the end.

I'm going to sort of take a middle ground between you two. I'd say keep an eye on it but don't be overly concerned for the reason that Chi Storm mentioned. The convection in that area probably isn't going to go nuts anyway as instability looks to be lacking to some extent.

1.5" at ORD, so not only the first measurable snow of the season, but also the first calendar day inch snowfall.

Alek usually goes final call 4 or 5 days out, so I'm assuming rainer is the final call.

This is where the warm December is going to pay off. Lake temps in the 40s as we hit New Years day are warmer than average.

Certainly sweating this one a bit. Regardless, looking like a good storm here or nearby.

It's just so easy to run into a random tenth or two. The previous record (12/20) lasted for 9 years, but it only beat the record before that by 4 days (12/16).