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Everything posted by Hoosier
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I was definitely being sarcastic about Detroit. A winter lover couldn't be that satisfied with what has happened so far, even there. Like you said, too much of a break in December. I think your standards are too high for where we live. They will only be met maybe 1% or 2% of the time. Most people don't judge it how you do. We all like winter (well, most of us). You don't have to feel ostracized or something.
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That's interesting. Actual precip was significantly less. For example, 0.05" precip at ORD. I think it goes to show how efficient it was.
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Detroit is near average snow to date, there's snow on the ground and it's cold. What more can a winter lover ask for?
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I think it's the recent cold and light precip rates. Made for an exaggerated impact.
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Man some of the roads are terrible. Was probably going 5-10 mph as I approached a stop sign and still started to slide into the intersection.
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Slippery outside
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December 15th-16th Warmth, Wind, and Severe Threat
Hoosier replied to Geoboy645's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
That is absolutely ridiculous for December. And not like all those IA tornadoes were weak. -
lol
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Low of -1 at ORD. Snuck below zero here as well.
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Wonder if there were any waterspouts.
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Cool pics
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Yeah, I'd rather see it earlier too. But getting slammed in February is a lot better than nothing.
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Come on, snow. I summon you.
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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
Hoosier replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Having Ohio discussion in separate threads is what has worked best. It is what it is. Separate regional threads within a subforum is not something unique to this subforum. For example, there are northern New England thread(s) in the New England sub. -
It was a great run.
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Somebody in my regional sub mentioned this storm, so I decided to check it out. Is there a reason why the NWS is being conservative with amounts across the area? It isn't just one spot, it seems like it is across the board. The models look pretty impressive.
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Ended up around 4". Stuff was not super easy to shovel here (unlike other areas which had drier snow) so it made for a good workout... probably didn't help that I haven't shoveled in like 10 months.
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What?
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A fairly lengthy update Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 903 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022 We continue a close watch on observational trends including gauging impacts through reports, traffic maps, and webcams. Snow continues across a lot of the area, mainly of a light and occasionally heavier rate, with highest impacts being experienced in open areas of north central Illinois, across the northern Chicago metro, and at times in far northwest Indiana. Have lowered forecast snowfall amounts a smidge and eased impact wording in a few locations -- namely southwest metro and areas where heavier rates have eased and will end altogether shortly (western locations). Some uncertainty with how the lake enhancement/effect will work out, but have seen some of this already at work in far southeast Wisconsin on terminal doppler weather radar data, and rates and amounts are coming in higher in these locations. So still would expect some amounts exceeding 7 inches in parts of Lake and northern Cook. The now strung out synoptic shield of snow is draped over the northern half of the forecast area this mid-evening. Frontogenesis (f-gen) within the 700-750 mb layer from eastern Iowa through far northern Illinois and into southeast Wisconsin has remained steadfast, producing regular banded structures of snow. As temperatures have fell (upper teens across north central Illinois now), the snow ratios have been regularly higher and it is estimated from reports that a 4 inch area of snow has occurred so far from Lee and Ogle counties east-northeastward to Lake and parts of northern Cook (recent 4.3 inch report from Palatine). Webcams in north central Illinois and road conditions have been quite poor, with I-39 webcams only recently having shown improvement as rates have started to ease. With the north winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph, east-west oriented roads that are not regularly plowed likely have dangerous travel conditions. North central Illinois will gradually see snow taper, though the second wave (or main trough) will keep at least regular light snow continuing in parts of that area into overnight. That may require extending the Warning for there for a few more hours into the overnight. Further east into the metro, conditions have mainly been worse north under the aforementioned banding. Also some likely lake enhancement into Lake County is aiding in regular heavier rates. Warning-like impacts generally continue in that area and the message is generally good. The central and southern metro have had less snowfall so far than expected, and in/near downtown Chicago saw little accumulation on traveled roads through 6 pm due to good treatment and heavier rates/better ratios being limited in duration. It has been well agreed upon by the RAP and NAM that f-gen will re-evolve a little southeastward over the southern Chicago metro for a few hours coming up (and radar is hinting at that taking shape). With temperatures having dropped several degrees from earlier, this should provide pavement accumulation. Due to the low amounts so far in Will and into Kendall, felt comfortable that conditions are and will continue to stay more Advisory level. For Lake and Cook Counties, some assistance from the lake -- albeit with somewhat marginal temperature profiles for larger flakes -- should again see amounts and impacts boosted from inland areas. There have already been some reports of markedly low visibility and shallow blowing snow from Lake County where winds are gusting over 30 mp. For northwest Indiana, conditions have been variable, but at times really poor on even the interstates in Lake and Porter Counties. This is a challenging area as they likely will have quite varying conditions. They are weeing low 30s temperatures advected from the lake with the north winds, but should also get into some of the f-gen forcing into early overnight, and then some lake effect very late tonight into Sunday morning. So still felt alright with the Warning message for this area, keeping in mind while high uncertainty on amounts, a little more so with overall impacts (and some already seen). Further south, patchy freezing drizzle has been noted in reports from Bloomington up to Pontiac. Humidity profiles are marginal in the ice nucleation layer and will stay that way for the next several hours. So some occasional snow and freezing drizzle will likely continue. The going Advisory looks fine. Hope to gather some snowfall reports from this far south before 10 P.M. MTF
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Managing to be in a halfway decent band right now.
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Just want to say y'alls pessimism sucks, even if kind of warranted.
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I know there has been talk about the HRRR being overdone, but hopefully latest runs are mostly on the right track. Here's a shot at 15z tomorrow.
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Trees are pasted but I see a lot of blowing off of rooftops and such, so appears that the consistency is starting to dry out a bit.
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Band around I-80 looks nice though.
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Slow-ish start around here not really unexpected but it's picking up now. Good news is that it could snow ~18 more hours at varying intensities, so long way to go.