Hoosier

The amazing thing about that is that the winds were unusually light most of the time iirc. You're almost always going to need to be in a windy warm sector to get that warm in February.

After a hot first part of the winter, things have really slowed down at MSP. In the past 35 days (1/6 through 2/9), ORD has actually outsnowed MSP by a count of 9.7" to 7.3"

Snow map of the year candidate.

I'm totally expecting to be in no man's land in between the snow and severe threat. I've thrown just about all optimism for exciting wx out the window at this point.

I wonder if there is a sweet spot of separation between the lead system and this one to make it work for Illinois. If it comes out too quickly, it will tend to cut toward a similar track as the first system. But if it comes out too slowly, then it also gives it a chance to cut farther nw. Probably a serious/difficult thread the needle for many of us.

2012-13 added about 20" of snow from the back half of February onward, so nice rally indeed. That almost seems impossible to pull off this year with how things have been going, but we probably would've said the same thing at this time in 2013. It's unlikely of course, but you never know.

Chicago has some missing snowfall data on the usual websites like xmacis (mainly in the late 1890s and part of the 1990s). However, there's another site that I use to fill in those gaps where I can get a very good idea of daily snowfall amounts. Your 2 extra years are 1896-97 and 1997-98, both of which have a lot of missing data on xmacis. But I can tell you that both were over 15" by 2/14, which is why I left them off the list.

More stats for Chicago... With 14.2" on the season and no snow in the forecast, it is a virtual guarantee that Chicago will still be under 15" on the season when we reach the halfway point of this month. There have been 22 years where Chicago has been under 15" as of February 14, but it has only happened twice in the past 60 years (1963-64 and 2012-13). All 22 years finished with below average snowfall, with most being well below average. 1963-64 rallied to darn near average though with 35.2". Also had a very large rally in 1937-38 to finish at 34.8"

For sure. I actually looked ahead at that and there's been about 10 other occurrences of 0.0" or a T from 2/1 through 2/14. It last happened in 2017.

Chicago recorded 0.0" of snow in the first 8 days of February for the first time since 1998 (some years since then have produced a T in the first 8 days of February). February 1998 ended up finishing with 0.0" of snow. Pretty astonishing. I don't think we'll do that this time.

Missed it by less than 200 miles here. Close one.

Anybody starting with 1970 or so is being disingenuous. That was basically right in the midst of the coldest years on record, so you're starting with an unusually cold baseline. Either use 30 year averages or the entire period of record.

If a 980 mb low passes south of me a la Euro, I will leave the board for 1 month after the storm. That's my confidence in that solution not happening. But in a general sense, you see the models advertising how areas outside of the upper Midwest can score in the next 7-10 days. Ricky alluded to it. Get a lead system to suppress the baroclinic zone to some extent for the next one.

Today's marginal risk has been removed. Did have a small cluster of wind reports around the southern IL/western KY area yesterday evening into early this morning.

Obviously nobody can predict with 100% certainty, but I don't think it's going to play out like that for the most part in our region. I think we're more likely to see something like below, with decades/periods where the snowfall averages are steady or even bump up a bit (largely courtesy of a big season or two), with any more sustained precipitous decade over decade decline potentially not occurring until after most of us are dead. Natural variability still matters... a lot. Just my 2 cents

I think most people here do have some standards for how winter should be, though the standards aren't in the same league as yours. And when standards aren't met, it's more like "oh well, better luck next year" instead of being as emotionally invested as you are. imo, it's just not worth getting so invested in something that you can't control. Unless you're making your own snow, you can't control how much snow there is in your backyard. And even then, what about everywhere else around you? Having high standards isn't a bad thing. I do. I just reserve that for things that I can control. For example, I love lifting weights. There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age. I love the journey. I love trying to get better. Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself.

So I looked up some stats for Chicago. The last time there was 3 consecutive days with 1"+ of snow on the ground in March was in 2017. The last time there was 7 consecutive days with 1"+ of snow on the ground in March was in 2015. Didn't check other streak lengths for March, but I'm guessing there wouldn't be a lot of Marches that had snowcover for 2 weeks.

By the time good snow threats show up for us (if they do. I'm in show-me mode at this point) you can forget about having a sustained snow cover in our area. Not happening.

I can buy the bad luck argument up to a point. That's probably a factor to some degree but if DC's averages stay where they are or rise, it just keeps tipping the odds in the wrong direction. I'm sure they will have seasons in the future where they come in at or above average for snowfall, because they can get it all in just 1 storm.

The pepperoni and garlic pretty much disguises the spinach taste anyway.

This storm is basically like a summary of the winter around here, with the excitement missing in every direction. The snow will be nw, the best precip will probably be west (and also maybe south), the highest winds will probably be south, and the marginal severe risk for tomorrow is currently placed just to my south and east.

Pineapple is fine by itself, but not on pizza. I'll tell y'all what a killer combination is on pizza. Pepperoni, spinach and garlic. And bonus, 2 of those are healthy.

Though for DC, the place that can least afford a rise, the 2010s are the warmest on that list.

Can't rule out some severe reports, but on paper it's not as good as the setups that we saw earlier this winter in Iowa and Ohio.