Hoosier

Well, we've seen some outlandish model solutions for this one at times. Obviously still plenty of uncertainty but there's enough of a signal for an impactful event. At this time, it appears the southern half or so of the subforum is more favored, but we'll see how this trends in the coming days.

00z GFS continues with an impressive look for the storm next week. CCB on the order of 65-75 kts. Would certainly be a windy storm.

Yes

18z GFS still has the storm in the sub, so I guess that's good.

Though lapse rates weaken overall with time on Sunday-Monday, do notice some pockets of decent lapse rates on Monday.

The HRRR gust output has severe/near severe criteria winds with the line all the way from Oklahoma to Indiana.

Getting a bit more interested in the area around where the triple point will be sliding through. This would be just behind the activity earlier on Monday.

I'm sure the DC crowd likes the 12z Euro. Gonna be sad when Lucy pulls the football away.

I think I had less than 12 hours of snowcover from last night's "event"

Several GEFS members are jacked. We should at least have an anomalously deep system in the southern US. What happens after that is up for grabs.

All else being equal, urban areas often tend to have sonewhat lower dewpoints than suburban/rural areas outside of a city, but I haven't heard of it materially delaying precip onset. I've actually heard some cases of the opposite, with cities causing enhanced precip there and immediately downstream.

Nice pencil thin line on the HRRR.

That 2002 storm was good in a winter that wasn't so good (outside of lake belts). I had like 8" of snow and a decent amount of sleet with minimal freezing rain. Believe that is the storm that ORD received 4" of snow in 1 hour.

A sub 20" winter getting more precarious.

Please no. Her invading SNE a while back was enough.