SouthBuffaloSteve

HRDPS has a good hit for WNY after sunset tonight as well. Guess we’re going to have to wait a few more hours and see how things develop over Michigan.

I know it’s the NAM but that would be nice…

Of course I post that and they put out an updated AFD… 12z ballon showing less favorable conditions for any organized afternoon storms over WNY.

Clouds are gone and back to full sun. DP already into the 70s with the morning rain. It’s going to be down right oppressive today. Got a good feeling on the storm chances for today!

Quite a few trees down around WNY. Crews seem to be cleaning up pretty quickly and restoring power.

Chase Mode activated! SPC added tornado risk for this afternoon!

Nice disco from BUF on the storms this morning…

WoW… was not expecting that this morning. Lots of wind damage around here.

Yes. So looks like they base the risk level now on “ 7 day cases per 100,000”. If we wanted to get out of substantial we would have to get our 7 day cases down to around 450 (65 a day or less). Saw a dip today but it’s bound to go back up. Back at our last peak in Dec/Jan we were averaging 600-800 new cases a day.

The vaccine or no entry is unfair. Stop with the forced aspect of the vaccine. We need to mask again… ok whatever fine I get it and I’ll do it, but leave the forced vaccine off the table. I got my first two jabs, I’m a little more than reluctant to get any boosters.

Yeah but remember last year. We were saying the same thing. Final surge, vaccine will rollout in spring, and it dies out over the summer. Instead we are seeing wave 3 again. It’s just going to keep going and going at this rate. Already jumping right into the next super variant that should hit right at holiday time.

Nice. Yeah the thunder and lightning in that cell was booming.

I just missed it. Was rolling into the park right as it was wrapping up. Almost face planted rushing out of the car..

Great video! Drone intercept Looks like a bit of lull in the action but another flare up in activity likely in next few hours.

Looks like this one made landfall…

Cleveland to Erie has been the sweet spot so far today. Dozens of reports already…

What are you thinking as far as timing tomorrow? Really we will have favorable conditions almost all day long, but the EARLY morning like crack of dawn through 11ish looks best to me. NWS is mentioning later Sunday as the cold pool grows, so maybe sunrise +2 hours and sunset -2 hours tomorrow?

Gonna be staying close to the Outer Harbor area tomorrow. Per the IWRC significant Great Lake waterspout outbreak is possible tomorrow. Remember… “don’t intercept a waterspout”.

At this point if you wanted to get a vaccine you’ve had more than enough time to get one. It’s time to just let herd immunity end this. It’s a pandemic, people are going to get sick and die. The world cannot go through another lockdown of life. The looming mask mandates again. This is what I am most afraid of is a growing rift between the vax/unvax and mask/nonmask people. I don’t want to start the crazy talk but I think everyone agrees there is some weird stuff about the vaccine out there. So hard to believe anything anymore as everything on social or regular media has some slant one way or the other on it. You got Beasley over here telling players the NFLPA is withholding information on the vaccine from them, like wtf… And you wonder why more people believe the crazy ideas they hear every day. What are the odds this was to pop up in the US the week all the unemployment and eviction holds were set to end? Summer into Fall was going to be a critical turning point to get back to normal, but if we go back to lockdown the economy is done and lots of businesses will just end up folding for good.

Finally popped the warning for that one. Looks like some strong winds building in that line.

From BUF AFD… An outflow boundary from convection which passed to the north pushed across the Niagara Frontier, roughly to I-90 from Buffalo to Rochester. This helped weaken convection with the initial line, however mesoscale guidance shows a secondary line of storms developing along this boundary this afternoon. With wind shear still in place, there could be a second round of strong to severe storms along and to the south of this boundary. How strong depends in large part how much destabilization occurs behind this initial outflow during this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect for the cwa

Freaking lake breeze holding strong yet again today…. Storms were trying but once they hit that shadow they got shredded…

It’s coming!!!