SouthBuffaloSteve

NW wind at sunset to a SW wind at sunrise would explain the temp getting warmer, nothing hugely odd about that. But I still do feel there is something corrupting the temperate data at KBUF for at least a portion of the over night period. Need to be mindful of the lake influence right now. Didn't have as much of an impact last month but now when the area in general is sitting next to a lake that is 25 degrees warmer doesn't take much for some warm air to spill in. I really think it has a lot to do with the topography of the area. I know we can see the impacts with the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills and even the Niagara Escarpment on a large scale view of WNY but were talking about going down into like town by town changes in elevation. Don't even know if or where you could find resources that would have fine detailed maps like this of say just Erie County.

Here’s a radar shot from this morning. Can see that small line lifting up basically opening the door and letting a little warmth spill into the area before closing it back up.

Ran numbers for this morning.. interesting for sure! Couple things I see... 1. There was an odd temperature flux at all of the PWS this morning between roughly 5am and 7am. Stations were all rather flat lined from 12am-5am, but then every station saw a quick rise in temp of roughly 2 degrees around the same time and then quickly had their temperatures crash back down by 2-3 degrees the next hour. Handful of stations actually set their daily minimums following the temperature crash. This temperature swing looks like it rolled across the area as there was a delay in a few of the stations showing this rise and fall. Depending when you saw the temp map this could have shown a larger than reality variance with real time reporting. I believe this was the result of lake influence. Radar check from around 6am shows a faint convergence area lifting from the NY shoreline up towards Ontario before drifting back south after suinrise. Very likely this area of convergence lifted up some of the warmer air over the lake and pushed it across the area bringing a momentary warming as it drifted northward and a rapid cool down as it pushed back south. I'll see how to post the radar loop. 2. Regardless of this neat tidbit here when looking just at the 12am-5am time before this added noise, KBUF is still running to dang warm! Solid 3 degrees above the other stations average from 2am-5am. These short terms unexplained time frames of higher than average departures during the early morning hours continues to be a thing...

Erie took a bit of a dump. Huron is cranking. Starting to see some lightning in the upstream bands. Think we see the lakes pulse up again later this afternoon.

Might have saw one funnel drop a bit but otherwise nadda this morning. Still a nice time walking the beach at Sturgeon Point. This was interesting… wonder if you can reserve this to ride out a winter wind storm. That would be wild! lol.

@BuffaloWeathergoing out at sunrise for a couple hours… where should I setup? Was thinking somewhere different like Evangola Beach or Sturgeon Point Marina. But Hamburg Beach would have a good view also.

Cell SW of Syracuse has popped a tornado warning a few times now… 6am in October with Tornado Warnings…

Awesome night chasing.

Mothership! Sneak peak while I’m trying to get back out in front of it!

Tornado warning now for that cell!

Timing would be perfect… Have the cell rolling in off the lake right at sunset.

Don’t see the KBUF office using this verbiage often…

SPC extended the 5% tornado risk to include all of WNY and into ROC now as well.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight. The most favored time for severe weather will be from 3 PM to 9 PM. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, but large hail and even an isolated tornado are also possible, especially across the Southern Tier closer to a warm front. There is an additional potential for strong to damaging wind gusts late tonight as another round of thunderstorms develop ahead of a cold front.

GFS still holding onto the Lake Effect idea for Oct 25 time frame…

Erie actually went up a degree today and now at 67. 7 degrees above average for the date. Surface Temps across the lake are still 68-70. Just need that early cold outbreak in the 10-14 day range! Even with just “cooler temps” this weekend should see some good LER setup, especially off Lake Ontario. Liking Sunday for some spoot action!

66 already to start the day? Warmer in Buffalo right now than the gulf coast of Northern Florida. Like our own little Oasis here… Line marks 65 degrees.

Was in West Seneca at the time. Had power back on within 3 days here. Longgg nights pulling buckets out of the sump pump pit the night that all melted.

Anyone think we will see anything? Bit cloudy now but pocket of clear skies moving into WNY on satellite.

No better way to end an 80 degree mid October day then catching an epic Lake Erie sunset. Colors tonight were incredible!

This blows…