SouthBuffaloSteve

should be a fairly intense band for a period

How is the foliage for everyone else? A lot of the maple trees near me are still pretty lush, finally seeing some change today after the recent freeze but can’t say I ever remember seeing the trees so full so deep into November. Might not be a good thing it we end up seeing snow into this weekend.

If it’s not snowing this time of year I want weather like today! Perfect! And with the weekend forecast I think I need to go get a bag of hot dogs to throw on the grill!

Bills game was horrific. Worst game I’ve had to watch in years… Offense looks lost…

wow, great link, thanks! lot of information on there to dive through, but as you said it also seems to show KBUF is running warm by comparison!

I've sent them a few things recently but they stopped replying, I bet they think I am a crazy nut job. The only answer I have been given is UHI could explain it. While the impact on the climate records is minimal I still wonder if they could at least try and calibrate a second probe to the ASOS and then place it somewhere else on the airport grounds and just test to see if the current location reading is being contaminated during the overnight period. Could be new development or activity in that area of the airport that the NWS is not even aware of? Makes me wonder if this higher temperature reading could cause any operational issues at the airport. Take last night for example where the airport was reading 38 while the surrounding sites were near freezing at 32-34. Do we need to de-ice the runways yet? Maybe at 34... but 38 we can wait another hour right? Maybe a bit of an extreme example, but I think we should want the "official" temperature to be rather official shouldn't we? Hard to accept it when we have question past record keeping and errors have actually been found... (the Erie snow spotters... the Buffalo temp sensor issue just last summer/fall... I think someone else mentioned Albany found an error with their sensor this past summer)

An above average November would be awesome as the early snows are becoming more rare. Couple interesting data tidbits for Buffalo. 1940-1987 (47 year period) had an average November snowfall of 12.55" and only saw two seasons (46/47 and 54/55) that had Novembers with less than 1.0" of snowfall. 1987-2021 (34 year period) had an average November snowfall of 7.14" and saw 14 seasons with November snowfall less than 1.0" (87/88, 88/89, 90/91, 94/95, 98/99, 99/00, 01/02, 04/05, 09/10, 11/12, 15/16, 16/17, 17/18, 20/21). Just an incredible drop off in early season snowfall in Buffalo over the past 35-40 years...

Its hard to say that these 20 surrounding PWS sites are not accurate, when they are so consistent with each other. I have no idea what is even causing it, just curious what is making the KBUF temp standout like a sore thumb on so many nights. Temp is in line during the day so has no impact on overall high temp or low temp as the station usually crashes from 5-7am to bottom out. This blip probably has little to no impact on the overall monthly temp average. Still the overnight often features several hour periods where KBUF is much warmer than every other station and I just can't figure out why.

@Thinksnow18 I added some new graphics! Little Johnny Cash for tonight's 10pm temperature check in at the always balmy Buffalo Niagara International Airport! Be careful around that Ring of Fire!

Just had some straight up flakes with the last cell that rolled in. Was a bit underwhelming verifying what the radar was showing but I’ll take the flakes!

Is it normal to have all those solar events? Maybe I just never paid attention before but seems like this is happening every few nights lately? For viewing looks like we might have a little void in the clouds for a bit if it decides to show up.

Carolyns up to 9” already! 6” in the last 4 hours.

Good Disco… I’ll copy paste the last part first… Given this is the first lake effect event of the season and there is at least small potential to even overachieve in heavier snow, have put winter weather advisories up for lake effect snow across Southern Tier and to east of Lake Ontario. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 915 PM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Lake effect east of both lakes will continue tonight into Thursday, causing the first impactful snowfall for portions of the Western Southern Tier and the Tug Hill. Well below normal temperatures will slowly warm through the week. Quiet, mostly dry weather is expected from Friday through at least the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lake effect showers continue east of both lakes this evening, primarily in the form of rain for most areas; but webcams over the Tug Hill are showing accumulating snow currently falling. A sfc trough across Lake Erie, extending across the Niagara Frontier and over Lake Ontario will swing across the rest of the area the next few hours, shifting winds to more west/northwest and intensifying the lake effect over the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Given H85 temps falling to -6c this evening and sfc temps dropping back into the 30s, will not take long for the rain/snow to switch to snow with lowering elevations this evening. Over-water instability very impressive tonight especially as shortwave over Michigan swings across the lower Great Lakes. Lake induced CAPES rise to over 1000j/kg and ELs surge above 20kft on Lake Erie and over 25kft on Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie, flow starts out from northwest off Lake Erie and remains stationary through the night across the Southern Tier. Given this, appears this will be more of a Chautauqua county into Cattaraugus county higher terrain event. Cold enough though that even lower elevations inland from the Lake Erie shore will see some accumulation. Snow totals into early Wed should reach at least 3 inches with higher amounts of 5 inches across higher terrain and in most persistent bands. Some additional snow will occur into Wed morning as another shortwave drops across with still favorable instability in place. Given the closer proximity of the shortwave tonight and steady low-level flow and such high instability think advisory should work out. Off Lake Ontario, flow starts off the evening west-southwest then veers quickly to west-northwest behind the initial sfc trough. Soundings suggest favorable setup for portions of the Tug Hill much of the night, before winds become more northwest late tonight in wake of the shortwave moving through. Farther approach of the shortwave is a limiting factor as is winds shifting some to start, but think degree of instability and a period of stronger low-level convergence, upslope flow into the Tug Hill will make up for this. Similar amounts as Southern Tier, but with much more of a fetch of air modified by warmer waters of Lake Ontario, expect the rain/snow line to be sharp and snow amounts highly dependent on the terrain. Does appear late tonight into early Wednesday, some snow could occur at lower elevations of Oswego county at least farther inland from the Lake Ontario shore.

Ummm… Wow! Check out the band off Huron!

Timed spout patrol perfectly this afternoon to catch a few cells roll in off Lake Erie. Zero spots today but can't beat a couple hours parked along the lake with a coffee on a cold day watching the storms roll in. Had a few sprays of grapuel so excited to see my first frozen precip on the season. Also got to explore a new location Wright Park in Dunkirk which was a really nice spot I will have to try again. Got a few hours free in the morning to head out not sure if I want to try the lake shore again or just take the 219 south until the hills turn white and drive around there for a bit.

that pics makes me a little jelly... no it makes me really jelly! Soon!!!

Ready for some action!

Great picture of Buffalo from near Crystal Beach about an hour ago.

Crazy again! These training rain bands this fall have been impressive. Flood warnings will be dropping soon. One can only hope we will have this same mega abundance of moisture when we have some colder temperatures!

Starting to get into range for our upcoming cold blast. Seems the current idea is to have that storm on the coast plow north and get wrapped up. Depending how that winds up to our north would be a good setup to turn the lakes on.

But then we see nights like tonight that make me question UHI. Its been cloudy all day, raining most of afternoon and evening should be a pretty consistent temp base. And yes there is, with the PWS, not with KBUF. The 15 closest stations were all reporting between 45.5 - 46.2 (0.7 degree variance). That is pretty impressive to have that many stations reporting that close in temp. KBUF is much warmer in comparison sitting almost 2 full degrees warmer at 48.0. Glancing at the PWS hourly temps they all have been hovering between 45.5 and 46.5 since 6pm. KBUF has been hovering at 48 since 6pm. Somethings just not right...

3 to 4.5 degrees warmer the entire night last night. The green line station that blips up at 1am looks like it was brought inside for some reason as station warmed to room temperature for a short period. The thing that gets me is the consistency all of these different PWS have with each other. The KBUF line inst even in the same ball park. It's an outlier overnight for whatever reason...