
Rockem_sockem_connection
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Everything posted by Rockem_sockem_connection
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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
That's what I'm saying ty for helping. It's just something I battle with myself. Like yes there's a trend we observe but I don't find it actually means anything. I mean we do this every winter we all know the deal lol -
January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Lol I'm kinda cracking myself up. Like you sit here and go 5 MILE SHIFT WEST and keep saying that each run til we run out of time? Lol are we supposed to pretend it's like a football game that ran outta time? Oh darn if we just had some more time those models would of shifted west two more times??? Hahaha it's a funny thought you gotta admit. -
January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
This isn't true. You can't perceive shifts as trends in the sense you're trying to. It's not like a sporting team trending in the right direction with some wins, making progress on making the playoffs. The models can and probably will come out at 0z taking away the 1-2' totals because again, trends don't actually excited in weather models - just the perception of trends. My two cents ty for listening -
January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
That's because there's no such thing as a trend when it comes to model runs. We like to think there is but there's not and that's why your statement is correct. Models don't trend. There digest data and spit out results. It might look like things are trending in a direction but that's something we have artificially created ourselves. Models don't trend -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
I am not a troll. I am a person...tyia. Everyone get their popcorn ready folks, the magic hour will soon be among us. We've currently got the best model showing a modest storm and the rest showing mega storms. Someone have to give! Stay tuned y'all!!! -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
I'm sorry you're upset Zeus. There's been similarly tracked storms with similar setups that didn't pan out. I'm a traditional Miller A guy, I don't like Miller Bs and they tend to not play out well IMBY. God bless you -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
This has huge bust all over it if we look at other events in somewhat recent history. Man I'm just gonna go work out, maybe run some errands. We'll evaluate at 0z. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Aww man the classic ... attitude thing. Cheer up buttercup, no need to have an edge -
January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
love this low key flex. send all the poors pictures lol me too send em -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
That sounds more complicated. They already thought I was committing insurance fraud once when my mustang was the only one flooded on the street. Probably better off getting the neighbor a bottle of 15 yr and asking him to keep an eye out. It'll end up being a 4-8" storm though anyways, no biggie -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Anyone have any suggestions for me here? I have one of those wood gazebos with the tin roof. It has a snow load capacity which wasn't much but we never really got a lot of snow since I put it up 3 years ago or so. Just wondering what I am supposed to do if we get 2 feet of snow while I am not home. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yeah I don't buy into that at all lol. Weenies get kept alive til 18z I guess. -
January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's not a mileage shift here that's a problem. It's not a classic Miller A tracking 25 miles east off the coast lol. Lot more complex here -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
It's been a cold month I don't really need "stats" to tell me that. Way colder than last January but I guess some rogue 51 degree days brought the stats up. Problem with forecasting is no one except me uses feel and life experience for thinking about what has/is going to happen. Ain't everything revolve around a stat or computer model folks. So the Euro looks great for snow but I don't it verifies. That models been out to lunch longer than Brandon lol I would pay more attention to the other ones. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
18z says NO. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Hi Ralph, I changed the flight to 9 AM on Friday instead a few hours ago. I think the setup has a lot of boom or bust potential still. I don't think most people like to be in the strike zone this far out that's why I kind of have doubts. I could see this thing going right OTS but better safe than sorry. PS I have defended the trolls off your back in the MA forum. We will not stand for these attacks. -RSC -
January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
If you got a problem with Ralph you got a problem with me bud. I get to bust his chops, no one else. Careful. -RSC -
Cannot toss models you dislike the outcome on. We must weight every model fairly.
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Too 'thread the needle' for the weekend - I am going to comfortably rule out anything major. Could be some flakes produced from it still. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
@Ralph Wiggumwhat is the deal for a week from now? I have a flight on 1/29 out of PHL at 3:00 PM to go to FL. You need to hold this thing off til I leave. -RSC -
Rain to Snow obs for January 20th winter event
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
Rain on the river still in GloCo. WeatherNJ page stinks. If he hangs out here I don't apologize still. Never right. -
Rain to Snow obs for January 20th winter event
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
Feels like it will not switch over here on the E side of PHL. No temp changes. 39 degrees. -
Rain to Snow obs for January 20th winter event
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Rockem_sockem_connection replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
What are they looking at that we aren't?