Rockem_sockem_connection

NAM brings some high totals into PHL. Will the GFS???????????

Yikes, 12-18" is possible but there's models showing as little as 7" down there. Sheeeeeesh

Seems like CBS3 is most aggressive with the totals showing 6-8" for PHL.No one else seems to be going past 2/4 3/6 I wonder what they are seeing that the other channels aren't.

I mean it wasn't that much of a change. It's been closer all along than any other model *cough cough 2' snow on the NAM and EURO* lol. I'm not going to bat for the GFS but I adore her.

You tell me I dunno. I stare at weather models and use past experience to guess like everyone else. All I see are chem trails on these things

Looks vaporous I guess. Very cool

Ain't you in PA Ralph? What the heck map are you looking at!! Must be a Kuchera guy I seen what I need to see. 2-5" in PHL. 3-7" in SNJ. 4-9" down the shore. Locked and loaded folks.

Someone buy the GFS a beer. It's been virtually the same for days on end, it has to be right,

Could be more like a 2-4"/4-8" which is the way I'm leaning currently. I don't envy anyone who has to produce maps for the public right now. Flakes literally start in 1 day and we're still not sure if this is absolutely nothing ALA GFS, something decent like the 12K NAM, or something in between like the Euro. Sheesh glad I bumped my flight up regardless, not worth this kinda stress.

Euro brings it a minor event to PHL. GFS is non event. NAM is decent event. The other assortment of store brand models have a bigger event. Good luck making a reasonable prediction out of that. 0-12" for PHL

Hard to say the GFS is right when it's basically alone but it's been consistent. So I guess 12z tomorrow we wait for more answers. Crazy crazy crazy

They haven't been completely consistent but the GFS has, that's my two cents. I think it's reasonable to expect/root for a 3-6" for alot of folks on here though but sometimes that's not enough when it was looking like it could of been way more, I dunno. Curious about the 0z GFS though makes it interesting

Most people here live in Pennsylvania so wasn't all that great for them. Until the GFS shows something too it's useless getting worked up

I hold no grudges jayyy. I am sorry I could not word it like this fine poster did. The poster did a good job and is spot on.

I said this yesterday, got grilled. Glad someone more articulate can make better sense than me. Thank you.

So, how about those trends Jayyy? lol classic

I never said we don't get big Miller B's just that they tease us on models then many times have not panned out. The Philadelphia Inquirer apparently agrees with that so if you think that's wrong, I guess call them up and dispute it lol. Regardless, we always understood there was a pattern towards the end of the month that showed potential. We got there, then never had model consensus. At least we understood that. These instaface weather folks cherry pick the craziest kuchera they can find, share it to tens or hundreds of thousands of people and get their hopes up, and then if it doesn't happen those people get upset and I feel bad for them. Those instaface cherry pickers are the great downfall to weather IMHO and I've had enough of them.

NAM looks poor. This one is about done I guess.

If you think Miller B's don't have high bust potential, that is on you. 2' storms are rare regardless. We did get a 2' Miller B in 2010 and 2016 so I guess we are due for a 6 year 2' Miller B but you're not getting it this time it appears. Edit: Here's a fresh article I found lol https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-forecast-philadelphia-weather-winter-storm-20220125.html Sometimes that “B” can stand for bust around here as they often blow up too far north and-or east to affect Philadelphia.

TBF you don't need to be scientific to know that Miller B's set to dump 2' of snow in PHL usually don't work out. Probably 4 out of 5 times. So I mean, assuming the GFS was correct all along gives you an 80% chance of being correct probably.

GFS is king. It's been king for years. All hail the almighty GFS whether we like the outcome or not.

Yeah the GFS is most reliable and has been most consistent in recent years I find. At this point I'd expect the euro to show a 3-6" storm around Philly at 12z until it has not much going at all by 0z, and the GFS holds course. The Facebook weathermen will get grilled since they all shared the clown maps. They have done alot of harm to the public trust this winter, lots of unhappy people in their FB comments lol

Miller B, the ultimate boom or bust situation. Good luck to the TV forecasters on this one

I had an opinion that no one liked. Is this where I am allowed to post now? Or do I just get banned soon? tyia

Sorry I'm not popular around here I'll go back to my hole. Good luck to tonight's observers. Many fine drinks in here, cheers. it's not goodbye just a see you later