MUWX
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Everything posted by MUWX
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Southern trend continues on the GFS
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Pretty interesting stats
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Surprised there isn’t more talk about next week. Latest Gfs and Canadian are very similar at this range.
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Lock it in
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Starting to see some very faint returns on radar. I think we’re gonna have a decent period of freezing drizzle before the snow starts.
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I’d still heavily caution against getting your hopes but based on kuchera. The strong winds will be working hard against high ratios. Kuchera doesn’t factor that in
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Springfield extended their winter storm watch. It now includes basically everyone except the southern tier of counties.
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The icon continues to be much faster with the cold air. The 0z icon is about 3 hours faster with the cold air than the nam is. This results in a 6 am temperature difference of 21 degrees between the two models.
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The icon moves the cold air in fast. I think that’s what needs to be watched the closest
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SGF went with a watch for their northernmost counties but only mention 2-4 inches for them. Seems pretty reasonable to me. I think most of us struggle to get to 2”.
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I know ratios are likely to be above 10-1, but i wouldn’t rely on the kuchera numbers either. They are notoriously overdone historically.
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The low tracks way north. A low going from Nevada, mo to southern Illinois isn’t gonna produce much for most of us here.
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Seems unlikely to me that we trend south over the next 4 days but we shall see. Most of us have been on the southern edge for a while now and that rarely turns out favorably 4-5 days out.
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It was fun while it lasted
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I’ll never forget a couple years back when we were under a winter storm warning and it still completely busted.
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I’m not gonna lie…I saw this before the model and was expecting a lot more than 4-6” lol
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Yep, deeper snow pack could send temps even lower.
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That’s one the crazier GFS runs I’ve ever seen. It doesn’t get us above 0 for 36 hours.
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The Euro is something….
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CPC has pretty much all of us outlined in the slight risk for heavy snow in the 10 days prior to Christmas
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Decent snow falling right now. Pretty impressive temp drop since mid afternoon.
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11/29/22 MDT Outlook Issued -- Regional outbreak possible.
MUWX replied to CryHavoc's topic in Central/Western States
PDS watch coming per latest MD. Sure seems like they are going to go high risk next update. -
I am in Rutland Vermont for work this week, so very interested to see how this plays out. Home for me is in southwest Missouri, so I have no idea what places/features you all are talking about but as a big time snow lover I am excited to hopefully see some flakes before thanksgiving.
