I've been reading what Doug Heady and Gary Lezak have to say about the Christmas system, and they couldn't be more different. Doug has kept the same tone for about a week now, and Gary had flip flopped every model run. Gary went from a 10% chance of a while Christmas, to a 55% chance back to a 15% chance in 24 hours. They both use the recurring cycle, but it's pretty obvious that Gary is just following the models for this one, while it seems Doug actually has faith in the recurring pattern idea.