MUWX

Looks like another EWR could be getting underway now, as well. Andy Hazelton calling this out too on twitter.

Will they do a special advisory to update pressure or not? Hoping to see a sub 900 advisory

Well we haven’t had recon for several hours to confirm if there is a double wind maxima or not. The fact that NHC mentioned it might already be underway is reason enough to not discount the possibility.

I don’t think that’s necessarily a given fact. The NHC explicitly stated an ERC could be beginning. Radar out of Mexico showed a most and a possible, partial, outer eye wall developing a couple hours ago. Eye seems to be cooling some as well. We shall see what recon finds.

Looks like it turned around on flight aware but could be a bug or something. Not sure.

Very curious to see what recon finds this afternoon. Certainly looks to still be intensifying, but man, I’m just not sure how much more intensification the environment can actually support. Could be an all time recon incoming if intensification is continuing.

I’m really surprised the aren’t moving up recon. Waiting until tomorrow feels like a mistake.

The expansion of the eye wall could be a problem for Tallahassee

If it is, it barely is. The west side is very weak.

People have been posting this since Monday. Eventually it’ll be right…. Maybe.

Looks like it’s taking another big gulp of dry air on IR.

I’m not sure recon even supports current NHC winds. Category 4 becoming much less likely.

I’ll be interested to see if the NHC waivers at all in their next update. It has a long ways to go to reach the forecast for how mediocre it looks now. Dry air is doing a number on it, and big storms never really may wrap up quickly. I have my doubts that this gets to cat 4 before land fall.

Speculation on Twitter is that this thing is well ahead of schedule. Very interested to see what recon finds.

Because the expect it to make landfall before 8:00. The advisory says the still expect landfall as a major, it will just be slightly inland and weakening at 8:00 now.

Thats not how the cone works

Likely the result of the heat island effect. Very marginal system, where a degree or two makes all the difference

HRRR making a few people sweat tonight

As I understand it from reading their twitter replies, they were allowed to issue Winter Storm Warnings for ice rather than having to issue Ice Storm Warnings. Their Ice Storm warnings are now being used when they expect significant infrastructure (power grid) impacts, while Winter Storm Warnings are used when the ice is "only" expected to cause major travel impacts. Here in SWMO, I figured we would have little to no issues with the power grid because air temps were pretty borderline for the entire event so most of it would not accrete on elevated surfaces. However, due to very cold ground temps, roads were super vulnerable. However, SGF does not have the ability to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Ice, so they had to decide between the advisory and an Ice Storm Warning. Based on travel impacts, I think today absolutely should have been a Winter Storm Warning, but offices are limited by the the definitions laid out.

I like what Tulsa did with the winter storm warning. From what I understand, not every office is allowed to do what they did because it’s in the trial phase but this absolutely should have been a WSW in SWMO. I haven’t seen travel impacts like this in a long time.

Portions of SWMO upgraded to an ice storm warning.

Temps are still creeping up, but so far they have pretty substantially under performed. Something to watch as the night progresses.

I think it’ll accumulate on roads very easily but not so much on trees or power lines. Tulsa seems to agree, which is why they are going winter storm warning instead of an ice storm warning

Temps are going to be warm enough to keep it from accreting efficiently up here I think. Roads are a different story

I think the NWS set themselves up for failure by going with a warning.