MUWX
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Everything posted by MUWX
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Portions of the Wichita forecast area just got upgraded
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There is some very heavy snow across Oklahoma. I don’t see any reason for NWA to panic
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That’s not really what happened in Tulsa. Tulsa had moisture, just no cold. I wouldn’t worry in NWA yet.
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I understand them not putting a watch up because 24 hours ago this wasn’t a watch/warning level event. However, now that there forecasted snow amount is well into warning level, I don’t understand them not issuing a warning.
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That kind of defeats the purpose of a warning imo
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Tulsas warning map doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, given their forecasted snow map.
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Things looking really good for a snow storm and then it all falls apart at the last second
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I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if we wake up to some changes to the warning map
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12z HRRR is pretty warm, would likely cause some accumulation issues especially in Oklahoma.
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Images are at different times, but still a good run
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I’m not sure we can count on a northern shift. Ensembles are fairly dialed in.
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SGF explicitly stating that they expect their forecast area yo remain dry all week. Kinda surprising
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KC upgraded also…. All while most of this board gets 34 and rain. Sickening
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The complete lack of consistency with this system, for being less than a week away is crazy.
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For what it’s worth, the HRRR is quite a bit colder than other high res models in the short term and indicates some freezing drizzle potential across SWMO tomorrow morning.
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I’d be really surprised if this ends far enough south for many of us to care and with the possibility of an ice storm that might be for the best.
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Pretty depressing for most on this forum.
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Euro is still king. GFS and Canadian completely caving to what the euro is showing.
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The Canadian and GFS both have big storms for the area. Looks like someone could get smacked with ice and someone is going to be really upset with how much sleet they get
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GFS is somewhat consistent with a threat next weekend. Looks icy.
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GFS has been pretty consistent with a storm of interest around thanksgiving.
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Surge appears to be starting to reach the coast.
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Pretty hard to draw up a worse scenario. Concerning because of how well it initialized.
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HMON is an absolutely terrifying run for central Florida. If this thing is still in the low 900s tomorrow afternoon, the surge forecast is likely underdone, potentially substantially so. Looks like it might be heading for a landfall north of Tampa.
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Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification.
