MUWX
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Everything posted by MUWX
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Welp, now we wait for this thing to get sampled and hope that it saves us....
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Hard to get overly excited for another 3 inch event.
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It looks like tulsa may be rolling amounts back as well. Is Lucy here?
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Yep. Based on the graphics they have been putting out this afternoon, this is what I expected. At least we got a solid AFD this time.
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I hopefully it is fully sampled by the 12z run tomorrow.
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Well, if I am confident in anything, its that the afternoon AFD cannot be worse than this mornings.
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I hadn't seen that, but I think they have a lower threshold than SGF does though. If I remember correctly, Tulsa is 4" per event while SGF is 6". Hopefully the AFD will provide some insight soon.
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I am concerned by the fact that Tulsa went warning for everyone except NWA, and the fact that SGF isn't forecasting enough snow to meet the threshold for a watch/warning. I suppose SGF could issue one for below the threshold with other factors (cold, and blowing snow) but the fact that their is a warning to the west, and a watch to the east, doesnt give me a ton of hope that SGF is going to pull the trigger.
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Snow hole around my house. This is a lock.
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I'm interested to see what SGF does with their watch. I assume that will come either this afternoon or overnight.
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I doubt you wanna compare misses with us down here lol I havent seen four inches of snow since 2014.
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I like the GFS more than the GFS16.
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I am clearly a pessimist because I do not have any confidence in this.
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GFS 16 beings the sleet/snow line all the way up near I44 in missouri.
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This includes pretty decent amount of snow falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, so this isnt the forecast for just the first storm.
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SGF still hasnt put up an accumulations map, but the overnight AFD mentioned 5-8. Ill be interested to see what they say with the afternoon update shortly.
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Continuing to snow lightly here, ground is petty well covered. With expected temps and could cover, I wouldn't be surprised if this remains on the ground until the potential big storm starts. It would be nice to finally have an event where half of the snow doesn't melt on contact.
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I’m not great a figuring out winds off of models, but drifting could be a big issue with this fluff, correct?
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What a run.
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Not 100% sure but looks like Saturday morning to me
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Personally, I’m a big fan of the guy in the comment section asking if the output shown is in feet or inches lol
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The Oklahoma Mets seem to be pretty guilty of this right now. Putting out a graphic that shows 3/4 of Oklahoma getting 6-12+ at this range seems like a bad idea, especially this far in advance. I thought SGF put out the best graphic of anyone so far.
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Personally hoping we get the typical northern shift
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Man, I want to believe, but I can’t help but think these forecasts are a bit premature. How many time in the last 5-10 years have we had a system like looks great 5-7 days out then totally falls apart as we close in?
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Am I crazy for thinking that a miss to the south is the most likely outcome here?
