MUWX

GFS has been pretty consistent with a storm of interest around thanksgiving.

Surge appears to be starting to reach the coast.

Pretty hard to draw up a worse scenario. Concerning because of how well it initialized.

HMON is an absolutely terrifying run for central Florida. If this thing is still in the low 900s tomorrow afternoon, the surge forecast is likely underdone, potentially substantially so. Looks like it might be heading for a landfall north of Tampa.

Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification.

Looks like another EWR could be getting underway now, as well. Andy Hazelton calling this out too on twitter.

Will they do a special advisory to update pressure or not? Hoping to see a sub 900 advisory

Well we haven’t had recon for several hours to confirm if there is a double wind maxima or not. The fact that NHC mentioned it might already be underway is reason enough to not discount the possibility.

I don’t think that’s necessarily a given fact. The NHC explicitly stated an ERC could be beginning. Radar out of Mexico showed a most and a possible, partial, outer eye wall developing a couple hours ago. Eye seems to be cooling some as well. We shall see what recon finds.

Looks like it turned around on flight aware but could be a bug or something. Not sure.

Very curious to see what recon finds this afternoon. Certainly looks to still be intensifying, but man, I’m just not sure how much more intensification the environment can actually support. Could be an all time recon incoming if intensification is continuing.

I’m really surprised the aren’t moving up recon. Waiting until tomorrow feels like a mistake.

The expansion of the eye wall could be a problem for Tallahassee

If it is, it barely is. The west side is very weak.

People have been posting this since Monday. Eventually it’ll be right…. Maybe.