eyewall

nice! What did you win on? Also I hope so too!

SREF Plumes for snow: Raleigh: Atlanta: Greenville, SC:

Ouch:

I am holding where I am pretty much for the time being.

NWS RAH admits they are struggling with determining the extent of the warm nose and that is behind the variance in the model solutions. It is a crapshoot.

Raleigh upped by a inch:

Pretty much noise there.

Yep soil temp bust is not an issue here.

Huffman's latest:

RAH held the line at 1:16pm:

There is a decent chance we fail to make our forecast high here in Raleigh today keeping things nice and cold for now.

Timing wise you should be fine on the Charlotte to Raleigh. Raleigh to Edenton may see some leftover slippery conditions.

I am holding on my call from this morning for the time being.

Oh it certainly can, especially given the changing climate.

Ouch this is awful. There is no doubt about it. We may be cooked on this one.

Nice southern GA jackpot LOL.

oof devastating run on the NAM. Hopefully it is just way off.

yeah at this point I'll take it!

We all know there is going to be some back and forth from run to run at this point. This is my latest call:

This is going to be a roller coaster ride all the way until the storm arrives.

Raleigh AFD: Cold high pressure will again build into the region in the wake of the departing low Sat night. While the exact track of the low remains uncertain, the overall character and track of the system remains consistently a Miller A scenario, which (as noted in the previous discussion) favors a p-type distribution of mostly rain/snow with a narrow corridor of mixed p- type separating the two regimes. With the cold air in place and sufficient lift and saturation in the dendritic growth zone, latest guidance suggests snow at the onset in most, if not all locations. As the low approaches, a strengthening warm nose aloft could be strong enough to melt the falling snow, which would result in either sleet or freezing rain (where sfc temps are at or below 0 degrees C) depending on whether it is able to refreeze before making it to the ground. Some of the biggest questions continue to be where the rain/snow line will set up and how much sleet will mix in and over what area, both of which will impact total accumulations. There is still too much uncertainty to answer those questions with much confidence. Latest available guidance generally suggests the rain/snow line should lift nnwwd through the area Fri night as the low lifts along the Carolina coast, possibly making it as far as the climatologically favored I-85 corridor, with mainly snow to the north, a wintry mix along, and mainly rain to the south of the line. Precipitation onset will likely be between 21Z Fri and 03Z Sat, with the precipitation quickly exiting the area Sat late morning/early aft.

Yeah it is a very rough outline. I will update more precisely tomorrow.

First call: