eyewall
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Everything posted by eyewall
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You do realize that in this region getting more than a single event a season is pretty rare right? At least an event that is worthwhile anyway.
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Every shift will tweak it a bit. It is wait and see time.
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My second call:
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Too far north IMO.
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I will generate a second call map today.
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The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.
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RAH is highlighting everything that can go wrong from the warm nose to convective robbing.
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Here is my rough call:
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Nope, snow only with vis below 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours in frequent wind gusts of 35 mph or higher.
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Yeah I would say we very well might and most certainly a sleet fest for a bit. Sleet is around 4:1 ratio for accums.
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For triangle folks I am going with a T-1" for Raleigh and 2-5" for Durham.
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CAD has a tough time making it into Asheville often.
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Here is their expected or most likely map:
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That is going to be fun to have to walk down.
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It is a lot like an NC election. At first it looks legit and then uh oh!
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And here we go. That is not a good look at all.
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Where on the GSP site is that coming from?
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Something definitely went wrong with the 18z GFS at 108 hours and beyond. It is not loading on weatherbell.
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He is going with a Miller A
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DGZ saturates there but yeah fighting the warm nose at that point.
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That looks dry in the dendritic growth zone.
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I just fear it will be more of a sleet fest than indicated out this way.
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This storm will likely put the Triangle crowd in the sanitarium. It isn't looking great out here.
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It is a near certainty that it is over for RDU. I just hope I can find some time to sneak over to the Triad. This is a west of I-85 storm.
