eyewall

Yeah the question is will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the Euro go toward a glorified FROPA. The GFS does bomb the low much farther east: The Euro digs a little more with the vortmax and bombs he low over northeastern NC and just off shore. The timing lags quite a bit with the Euro as well. I think overall the pattern looks plausible and something could emerge from it. Of course it goes down to the mile in these parts and there is always opportunity to be shafted. The point right now is we have something to potentially track.

Thankfully injuries were not life-threatening but yeah that was Beech Mountain, a 6,000ft peak in western NC. They will be facing some lawsuits for sure.

Euro has a bombing low where as GFS has a FROPA but none the less it is something to watch. Not quite fantasy range and could be our next chance.

Yeah if we did have a favorable pattern we would need the low by Key West to start on the models before an inevitable north trend. Certainly everything that looked good for us early on has gone to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Right now it doesn't look great of course.

We are not getting shite from this one. This is a Mid-Atlantic/Northeast event. The exception may be a small amount in the mountains.

On the hunt (cell video)

The full wide shot:

Greetings from the south! After record warmth and an 80F New Year, we got some deform band love today in NC: This one reminded me of my Bolton upslope chase from 9 or 10 years ago minus the uphill travel and Subaru: (cell vid)

GoPro video from Roxboro (watch in HD when that is available):

Insta shot from Roxboro

Of course that was a joke about next Winter. Hopefully we can bring the next one a little further South

Still in 1/4 mile vis south of Roxboro

Roxboro!

Sleet on the North side of Durham

I am heading for Roxboro

Blue skies in Raleigh (Not a joke)

Hopefully we will have better luck next winter. For now the TS Conditions in Raleigh are pretty impressive.

40's and TS Conditions in Raleigh LOL.

Heavy rain and real strong winds out there. Almost TS type conditions as of 5:40am.

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/map/

Soil temps tonight:

This is true. I have seen that in Carrboro, NC. We had quarter mile vis and managed a patchy dusting which vaporized immediately upon the rate easing up.

The Triad should like this run (doesn't account for soil temps):

Yeah you need a high enough rate to make it all snow and to overcome the high soil temps. You would need 1 or 2 inches an hour I think to have a shot at coating the ground.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 348 PM Sunday... By Monday morning, colder air will have moved into the region, and the atmosphere will cool off enough to support snow in addition to rain as the surface low and upper level low reach central North Carolina and continue to push to the northeast. The hardest question to answer will be determining where snowfall rates are high enough to overcome the very warm ground temperatures in the 50s and 60s, considering temperatures have not fallen below freezing in the last week. While snow will melt on contact with a warm surface, a strong enough snowfall rate would be able to overcome the warm surface and allow for accumulation to begin. There is no good way to quantify this. The current forecast calls for snow to fall as far south as US- 64 and as far east as I-95, although there will be many locations that have a mix of rain and snow. The bulk of the accumulating snow should be located north of I-85 and occur during the morning hours. Considering the uncertainty of snow accumulation due to the warm ground, have decided to be conservative with coverage of a Winter Weather Advisory, and with the afternoon package will only issue an advisory for Person and Granville Counties, climatologically favored locations for snowfall. Later shifts will have the opportunity to decide if they want to expand the advisory area.