eyewall

I never thought I would see panic for RDU weenies because the Euro drops 9-10 instead of 28

It is not a rug pull as the overall consistency is there. A lot is going to depend exactly where the deformation band sets up and that is going to be a tough call almost until game time. Some of the amount shifts are likely because of this.

yes but again expect adjustments and honestly I am hedging a little low for some spots I am sure.

The one time I experienced that much is when I lived in Vermont:

If we get 6 from this and it is all snow I am good.

At the surface, cyclogenesis appears likely just off the Southeast coast, where a weaker but still prevalent baroclinic zone is forecast over the Gulf Stream. The primary front is expected to be still draped across the Bahamas, setting up a probable instant occlusion low surface pattern. The low off the Carolina coast is expected to rapidly deepen Sat into Sat night, as stronger synoptic ascent overspreads the Gulf stream and the main synoptic front is pulled northward. On the backside of the low, an Arctic airmass will become locked in over the Mid-Atlantic as the low deepens off the coast, resulting in potentially record breaking low max temperatures during the event. This pattern is favorable for at least light snow with a high snow/liquid ratio within central NC, but also brings an incredibly difficult forecast challenge related to a deformation band on the north and west side of the deepening low. The likelihood of band formation, let alone its timing and placement, remains a point of considerable uncertainty and may not be ironed out until 1-2 days before the event begins. However, the top analogs and latest suite of 00z model guidance highlights at least the potential for significant snowfall totals somewhere from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. There are a few failure modes for this setup which would result in less precipitation over central NC. The first is the placement and the latitude the mid/upper level low closes; minor adjustments will have potentially significant ramifications on if/when/where the deformation band sets up. The second is that some degree of cyclogenesis will occur along the primary baroclinic zone over the Bahamas and may draw stronger ascent, moisture, and related liquid equivalent and snow amounts away from the instant occlusion-type, nearer-shore coastal low.

That was the most heartbreaking event ever less than a year after the crusher.

I finally got home. Still tons of cars with ice chunks flying off but I didn't get hit this time.

I think it was Wednesday last week when the last one turned against us so we have to get through that wall lol.

that is pretty much all but one frame

Euro

What a screw job

Another blockbuster run but I of course I do not expect this to hold.

Keep in mind the snow and ice from the last storm certainly laid a good foundation for the next cold air mass.

I was told at the shop there is no law in VA to clear your car but yeah everyone should do it anyway.

This was on I-95 so that was another incident for sure.

Thank you and yep about to go to the dealer for when they open.

The Euro AI (Kuchera not available for this one):

No I don't think so either lol

I would like to say lock this in here before it heads up to New England:

I appreciate it everyone. I just can't wait to get back home at this point.

NAM (North American Mesoscale Forecast System - 12km) NAMNest (NAM 3km high resolution nest) GFS (Global Forecast System) GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) GDPS (CMC - Environment Canada Global Deterministic – PoP12/QPF06 only) GEPS (CMCE - Environment Canada Global Ensemble) EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics) Gridded GFS MOS (GMOS or MOSGuide) HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh), CONUS only RAP (Rapid Refresh). (Also RAP Alaska) Gridded LAMP (GLMP Localized Aviation MOS Product), CONUS only HiResWindow ARW NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW)) HiResWindow NMMB NCEP (High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW)) SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) CONUS, Alaska, Puerto Rico sectors NAVGEME (Navy FNMOC Global Ensemble) The Euro is also in there

18z GFS is a whiff here: