eyewall

I have seen sleet in the 40's plenty of times.

There have been a few sleet reports north of Raleigh already today as an FYI.

I never said it was a final call but yeah the sleet concern is always a real one in central NC.

My latest call map (risky knowing bust potential is high):

My rough call:

NWS Raleigh is not very enthused and is mainly east of 95 with it.

It is pretty much holding for the time being.

We are all hoping to be Nammed for sure LOL. Afternoon discussions will be crucial.

I don't think it would be as much of an issue in Winston and GSO.

Yeah ideally I would like to see everyone get in on it but we know how it works down here. This was much easier in my few years in BTV.

As of now I think a 1-2 inch event would be about the best the Triangle would pull from this. Drier air with the high position will be a concern. I think there will be some in the lee of the mountains that get shafted somewhat by downsloping.

That would be fine by me but I seriously doubt these numbers verify. If we get a dusting that is a win this year though.

Lock that one in . Nice frontogenisis

Most likely the sanitarium will become much more active.

I know I will be ready to position myself in any potential jackpot zone should anything materialize.

The mean has 1-2 inches across NC

12Z GFES ENS members:

Yeah basically. We need that energy to dive in farther WSW as when it finally comes in toward Fri it is too late unless you are halfway to the Azores.

Yep basically back to square one at that point.

I know I am just expressing frustration. Anyway if you want a little more it is obviously a very suppressed run with the strong high nosing south and confluence in the upper levels. There just isn't the amplification to unleash a power house low nor the strong shortwave energy. Your looking at some weak disturbances feeding off strong out vorticity to the south of the confluence that would result in a weak "southern slider". That is what this run shows. Is it a hair better, I suppose, but nowhere close to anything substantial on 12z op run. Additional note: There is a better looking vort max that tries to makes it way into the picture on Fri but it would spawn a low too far off to the east well off shore.

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Most depressing winter in history to be sure. It is almost impossible to get a win in this pattern. The 2/8 event was a lottery win for those who lucked out.

Typically the area on a sounding where the temp is between -10C and -20C. You want to see if that region is saturated or not. This is the temp range for optimal snow growth and the microphysics involved in that.

Yeah true. The point is if anything actually materializes I plan on being there for it.

I will be headed down I-40 if anything remotely close to that is actually expected to verify.