eyewall

Yeah nobody wants to say it, but we could still lose this to VA. Once the trend north is established it usually doesn't come back.

Got to wait for February on that one.

In case anyone is worrying about soil temps, they are now in the 30's and 40's.

Agreed, the inland scenario is bad news to be honest. It would be a snow chase to the Triad

Yeah this would be a mix for RDU in reality but here is the Icon clown map:

Southern Pines, NC the morning of 1/25/2000 (I took this back then):

Yeah we know it almost always overperforms but we shall see.

EPS (6z which ends 18z Sunday):

GEFS:

The 6z GFS retrogrades the low back inland in NC. That is definitely not what we want on that run.

The 18z GFS

GFS was a great run if it were a day out. Obviously the triangle folks would be quite happy.

Yeah it wasn't the run we were looking for without question. The thread brought bad mojo ;-)

that looks like the 0z Euro.

Yeah the question is will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the Euro go toward a glorified FROPA. The GFS does bomb the low much farther east: The Euro digs a little more with the vortmax and bombs he low over northeastern NC and just off shore. The timing lags quite a bit with the Euro as well. I think overall the pattern looks plausible and something could emerge from it. Of course it goes down to the mile in these parts and there is always opportunity to be shafted. The point right now is we have something to potentially track.

Thankfully injuries were not life-threatening but yeah that was Beech Mountain, a 6,000ft peak in western NC. They will be facing some lawsuits for sure.

Euro has a bombing low where as GFS has a FROPA but none the less it is something to watch. Not quite fantasy range and could be our next chance.

Yeah if we did have a favorable pattern we would need the low by Key West to start on the models before an inevitable north trend. Certainly everything that looked good for us early on has gone to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Right now it doesn't look great of course.

We are not getting shite from this one. This is a Mid-Atlantic/Northeast event. The exception may be a small amount in the mountains.

On the hunt (cell video)

The full wide shot:

Greetings from the south! After record warmth and an 80F New Year, we got some deform band love today in NC: This one reminded me of my Bolton upslope chase from 9 or 10 years ago minus the uphill travel and Subaru: (cell vid)

GoPro video from Roxboro (watch in HD when that is available):

Insta shot from Roxboro

Of course that was a joke about next Winter. Hopefully we can bring the next one a little further South