eyewall
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Everything posted by eyewall
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So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.
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GFS essentially says lights out for much of the remainder of January.
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Today's rain was originally modeled as a big snowstorm. Remember that.
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yeah I am kind of pissed I missed that opportunity LOL.
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Congrats Austin, TX with 5 inches of snow lol.
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Great shots and beautiful lighting.
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Looks like Waco, TX is going to have a better winter than Raleigh.
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Just remember the boundary layer always wins. We saw that yesterday. You can't just depend on dynamics.
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The boundary layer always wins
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Cool our next severe threat
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Raleigh still not on the board this season. Given it is La Nina, time is running out.
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We had a mix but mainly rain with the deform precip. Still a T on the season here.
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I went west and it was snow and sleet in Alamance. Just rain here in Raleigh still but temp dropping. This is a BL bust overall.
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Liquid snow in Raleigh
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Triangle folks this is your only hope:
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Breaks of sun in Raleigh.
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Rain and a little sleet in Raleigh. The dry slot is now coming through.
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Agreed and there is quite a dry slot rolling through as we speak. Look the lower level WV on College of Du Page.
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Yeah this isn't looking good and we started the event a few degrees warmer than forecast.
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I have been MIA being too busy to get on here. My call at this point is: Western Mountains of NC to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock, and adjacent VA: 3-6 (locally 8) inches Triad to Danviile VA: 1-3 (locally 4) inches RDU: Dusting to an inch South and east of there: token flakes at the end
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One thing to point out is this is not going to blanket accumulations. This is going to be more banded and scattered I think in terms of decent amounts. It will largely be rate driven without question.
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The 18z GFS is definitely a better run. I only wish I could post weatherbell maps. GSO jackpots.
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3-6 for the time being.
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I will stick with 4-8 (locally 12) in the NC mountains, 3-6 foothills, 2-4 Triad, 1-2 slushy inches east of GSO to Raleigh and add 2-4 for Rocky Mount through Virginia Beach as my second rough call. Tomorrow I will begin the maps if warranted and the chance doesn't vaporize.
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There will be adjustments. I am following today's trends closely. One thing that does suck on the 12z GFS aside from being a bit warmer is the loss of the second system. One thing I will say is we have to watch northeastern NC and southeastern VA for a secondary max as the surface low deepens while moving out.
