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eyewall

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Everything posted by eyewall

  1. eyewall
    It is definitely a sinking feeling in the Triangle at this point with these trends. I may have to chase northeast.
  2. eyewall
    I'll take that call any day of the week LOL. Anyway he is definitely a bit more west with higher totals than I would have thought but not impossible.
  3. eyewall
  4. eyewall
    LOL try being in Raleigh right on that gradient.
  5. eyewall
  6. eyewall
    It would seem so but I think there is a limit on how far they can go out on these.
  7. eyewall
  8. eyewall
    If anything the 18z GFS pushed the ZR a bit farther southeast and the main round of snow is in a much shorter period.
  9. eyewall
    I feel like the models are struggling with these waves but the key is we stand in good shape to see at least a little something. As far as Raleigh I am thinking the low end is 1-3 inches but can't rule out more of a 4-8 event without question. Certainly I think we will see some pingers in there too.
  10. eyewall
    18z NAM rolling now
  11. eyewall
  12. eyewall
    The 850's do crash and temps are well down into the 20's and some upper teens. That would suggest better ratios as the event progresses.
  13. eyewall
    Verbatim that would be a bulletproof 4-8 for the Raleigh area.
  14. eyewall
  15. eyewall
    12z GFS Is a good run for Raleigh that is for sure. A nice 4-6 event. the ice is still worrysome of course but where that front hangs up is going to make all the difference.
  16. eyewall
    One thing is it's very important to keep in mind a purely snow event in the triangle is extremely rare. Even Jan 2000 started as a good amount of rain before changing over to snow. We had 20 inches out of that when I was in Southern Pines after hours of cold rain. If we get a bit of snow and a little sleet, the sleet will make any snowpack hang around quite a bit longer. Of course for photos I need it to be in the trees too. I only wish I was a photog in 2000 and had drone tech then.
  17. eyewall
    Honestly I would take the 2-4" verbatim from the GFS at 6z and call it a day. Hopefully the amounts go up but we shall see. Overall it is still getting a handle on the suppression factor.
  18. eyewall
    Yeah 18z definitely suppressed but I figured the NW edge would have been a bit farther north. The culprit is very dry mid levels looking at the 850 RH. This is for the 2nd wave. That sure is a sharp cutoff:
  19. eyewall
    A part of why the last system had such profound mid-level warming which helped was the SST anomalies. The Atlantic is quite warm,. Good for amping up storms with the baroclinicity but bad for those rooting against profound warm noses. That is a factor to remember with these next ones too:
  20. eyewall
    The Euro doesn't really separate the two waves where as the GFS does. The Euro develops a single low and bombs it out as phasing occurs. The GFS has a more distinct separation and delays the second vortmax a bit resulting in the weak impulse first with the FROPA followed by the main wave late in the weekend. Of course as mentioned, we know the strength of the SE ridge will play a key role here as well.
  21. eyewall
    I am just as salty as anyone right now after the miss with this last system but that will just be a mess if we try that I think. We can bitch and moan in the Sanitarium. They have a coffee mug there with my name on it.
  22. eyewall
    Hard to know but that was looking too similar to today. Not good.
  23. eyewall
    LOL more ice with that next system. I'll pass.
  24. eyewall
    That is true
  25. eyewall
    Seems like the ice storm busted for most due to sleet.
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