eyewall
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Everything posted by eyewall
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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
eyewall replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Either way I plan on getting shots around Roxboro tomorrow and I agree in thinking no matter what I think there will be a significant ice event there through the Triad and portions of western NC. Obviously southern VA as well. Max ice amounts of 0.4-0.6 seem reasonable for now. Raleigh picks up 0.1 and perhaps 0.2 to the northwest on 540.- 970 replies
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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
eyewall replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
We have seen it before this winter with the models getting aggressive only to pull back a bit northwest at the last minute. RAH busted on a few winter storm warnings this year because of that.- 970 replies
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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
eyewall replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Usually as ou approach .25 or greater.- 970 replies
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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
eyewall replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
Looks like I will be headed toward the Triad for drone shots.- 970 replies
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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
eyewall replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I just don't see how that much ice accrual occurs with temps in the 30-32 range. You really need 28-29 with a sustained cold air feed keeping it there for the well over 0.25 amounts.- 970 replies
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Temps still don't look great on the NAM
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Pretty much this. NAM only gets those areas down to 30-32 which isn't good enough for a high end event. Raleigh may touch 32 briefly but mainly 33-36. wash, rinse, repeat.
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Most definitely the worst stretch of being so close yet so far away I have ever experienced here with days of cold rain rubbing in the salt. I hate having to wait all the way until next winter for another shot.
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Yep we can thank the mountains for that.
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Honestly I would take a torch at this point since we are not getting any snow.
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The NAM is better at depicting the BL but don't rely on it for QPF when looking at the next ice potential.
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Thank you! Wish I got there a bit sooner.
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Some drone shots I grabbed in Henderson NC after work before it got dark. It was already beginning to melt by this time:
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I will post some shots from Henderson tomorrow (Sunday). They are via drone and from the ground. Quite a bit of tree damage there near thr quarry area. Ice accrual was probably around 0.3 inches or so and it had already been melting by the time I got there.
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I am referring to the extended stretch of 30's and rain.
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I am 44 and this is definitely among the worst I have seen.
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Anyone know how it looks in Henderson? I am wondering if their 30F ob is actually right.
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Yeah our region is pretty much going to be the only one without anything more than a minor hit this year.
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Yeah it just sucks hands down. The worst is the long wait until next winter. I can't stand the heat of July and August. The only upside is maybe a a few severe chases.- Yeah we can get something in March, but unless it is a nocturnal event it has a hard time against the sun angle.
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Thanks. I was going to try and get some aerials of icy trees. I know tomorrow will be more so but I will have to hope for a break from work to do that.
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Anyone know what it is looking like right now up by Henderson?
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It is maddening to say the least. I pissed off a lot of people but it seems like I was mostly right for my area with the exception of one minor event. We barely pulled that off as it was. The Mid-Atlantic won the year as did persistence. Welcome to the cliff.
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It is complete misery without question. The 12z globals are a bloodbath. The only reason this winter doesn't get an F here is the one minor event we did have. It is a D.
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I was hoping to at least get some ice storm drone shots if we couldn't pull a warning level snow event. The one minor snow will have to suffice.