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eyewall

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Everything posted by eyewall

  1. eyewall
  2. eyewall
    yeah good run for the SE VA/NE NC:
  3. eyewall
    They haven't seen much by their standards this year. I am rooting for them and us.
  4. eyewall
    Yeah that is a good point. I am hoping this 12z run is a pivot point back in our favor.
  5. eyewall
    Doesn't make any sense and I checked the upper levels for moisture and that isn't lacking. I would think there would be more banding for sure for the eastern half of NC with a 996 low starting to bomb out. The takeaway from this run is the improvement in position etc as NorthHillsWx mentioned.
  6. eyewall
    The QPF is crap on this run but not sure if I am fully buying that.
  7. eyewall
    Well it definitely looks better in the end on this run:
  8. eyewall
    yeah the phase has been too late and more partial in recent runs.
  9. eyewall
    I don't think it will get the job done for us be we shall see:
  10. eyewall
    12z GFS rolling: Wave 1 over the 4 corners:
  11. eyewall
    If anyone in NC gets this one I think it will end up being the coast. Unfortunately I am not thinking it will be a 2010 redux at this stage.
  12. eyewall
    Rooting for you all up there and hoping we can all cash in from RDU to Maine. I would say the southwest s/w if farther west when it dives into the 4 corners region by almost misses the phase with the northern stream until it is nearly too late. It is those two players that are resulting in the run to run variability. The ridge in the southwest is a factor as well in the position of the southern stream piece of energy.
  13. eyewall
    The 18z GFS is a backslide in the wrong direction for sure. The primary wave in the southwest starts off in good position but the phase is more partial and late. Almost a miss by the northern stream wave. Hopefully a blip but not reassuring of course. Even most of the New England forum won't like this one.
  14. eyewall
    No complaints here. That dumped 10 inches in this area.
  15. eyewall
    GFS: Euro: Note the subtle differences between the two regarding the main piece of energy near the 4 corners. Note the stronger SW Ridge on the Euro as well. That is the difference maker.
  16. eyewall
    The Euro has a much stronger ridge in the Southwest than the GFS so the phase again happens farther east and New England gets a superbomb.
  17. eyewall
    Hell I would be more than thrilled with a post Christmas 2010 scenario:
  18. eyewall
    The mean is definitely better than the op. Definitely a step in the right direction.
  19. eyewall
    We need it to wait a little longer before going neutral to get the phase farther southwest.
  20. eyewall
    Not huge amounts but respectable even if the low cranks a bit late. Definitely an improvement.
  21. eyewall
    And as I said the comma head delivers after the rain. This is what you want. A solid Miller A:
  22. eyewall
    Much better spot for the phase. The thumb ridge in the SW collapses a bit more this run allowing more of a dig. The downside is more in the way of rain for central NC but those details come later. Everyone forgets there was a lot of rain first in the Carolina Crusher before the epic comma head.
  23. eyewall
    Looks like our wave is over the 4 corners on Thursday (similar to the 84hr NAM):
  24. eyewall
    The grass is always greener:
  25. eyewall
    One thing we know is this likely not going to be a Murphy to Manteo event. There will be winners and losers if there any land impacts in NC at all.
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