eyewall

Current status: Boone: We're good Charlotte: This could be the one! Winston-Salem: Feeling good Greensboro: Feeling pretty good Raleigh-Durham: Tanking Maalox and downing Tums Fayetteville: Day drinking Wilmington: Hitting the ABC store to re-stock

Yeah that looks about right.

For anyone east of the Triad, see you in the Sanitarium. This obviously isn't looking good for us right now. The screw line on the Euro is just west of US-1.

This is make or break for the winter so hopefully everyone can get a little something.

I am reserving a spot here now after those 12z runs.

For the Triangle eastward you are saying "well that was fun while it lasted". This is not a good run at all for us. It would be snow to mix to rain followed by frozen puddles after. Even the Triad sees a sleet fest in this scenario. This would be an I-77 and west scenario in reality.

Yeah nobody wants to say it, but we could still lose this to VA. Once the trend north is established it usually doesn't come back.

Got to wait for February on that one.

In case anyone is worrying about soil temps, they are now in the 30's and 40's.

Agreed, the inland scenario is bad news to be honest. It would be a snow chase to the Triad

Yeah this would be a mix for RDU in reality but here is the Icon clown map:

Southern Pines, NC the morning of 1/25/2000 (I took this back then):

Yeah we know it almost always overperforms but we shall see.

EPS (6z which ends 18z Sunday):

GEFS:

The 6z GFS retrogrades the low back inland in NC. That is definitely not what we want on that run.

The 18z GFS

GFS was a great run if it were a day out. Obviously the triangle folks would be quite happy.

Yeah it wasn't the run we were looking for without question. The thread brought bad mojo ;-)

that looks like the 0z Euro.

Yeah the question is will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the Euro go toward a glorified FROPA. The GFS does bomb the low much farther east: The Euro digs a little more with the vortmax and bombs he low over northeastern NC and just off shore. The timing lags quite a bit with the Euro as well. I think overall the pattern looks plausible and something could emerge from it. Of course it goes down to the mile in these parts and there is always opportunity to be shafted. The point right now is we have something to potentially track.

Thankfully injuries were not life-threatening but yeah that was Beech Mountain, a 6,000ft peak in western NC. They will be facing some lawsuits for sure.

Euro has a bombing low where as GFS has a FROPA but none the less it is something to watch. Not quite fantasy range and could be our next chance.

Yeah if we did have a favorable pattern we would need the low by Key West to start on the models before an inevitable north trend. Certainly everything that looked good for us early on has gone to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Right now it doesn't look great of course.