eyewall
-
Posts
12,466 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by eyewall
-
Yeah it definitely stings but it is what it is. We barely squeaked out one decent event with so many opportunities. This winter is a C- in the Triangle (and only that because the professor doesn't want to see you in their class anymore).
-
I knew it was over when we missed out on the third threat here. This won't be anything more than token flakes.
-
I am pretty sure the Raleigh screw zone is now incorporated into the models. I was amazed this morning to still see this "event" still on the table. I am going into this expecting nothing for sure.
-
yeah I just don't think we are going to get the job done here on any kind of make up event.
-
The timing is much quicker on the 18z but makes sense with a weaker more progressive system. It would amount to a flizzard at best for most in NC in reality.
-
The CMC keeps the northern stream energy to north for sure.
-
-
It is so close. The phasing is nearly there. If we can get that trough to tilt a bit more negative slightly sooner we would be in business as far as a more substantial event. We would want the low a bit closer and to slow up enough to allow the cold to catch up quicker. It will be a race for sure:
-
The only thing saving us on that is it being at night again.
-
It is all about the deform band with this and as others said if the cold does make it in time.
-
Obviously that was an awful run at 12z. There isn't much good to say about it. We will see if it trends back at all but the trough remains positively tilted and any phasing happens just too late. Story of the year I guess. Triangle folks are checking toaster prices.
-
That is probably about right lol.
-
I miss this terribly! I always loved the backside fluff. It's how we got to 30 inches in the Pi Day storm. Looks like a nice solid double digit snow for a lot of the region.
-
Yeah the triangle did get shafted compared to what could have been with 3 chances I have it at a C- right now.
-
Yeah not looking good for a makeup event anytime soon.
-
Obviously this isn't looking good. It may be on to mid-month already.
-
It is a bit farther south than the same feature on the GFS. Not sure what it would have done beyond that time downstream if it would still be very suppressed.
-
Yeah could end up with more sleet in reality. That has happened a lot in these events.
-
Yeah but gaining support slowly. The Mean has a storm now with wintry precip. We are still a good distance from the event for sure.
-
The GEFS definitely showing more of signal on this run as well. The Op run has 6-8 hours of ZR for the Triangle.:
-
The pattern is very close on both models, it is simply a difference of where the low tries to crank up.
-
12z GFS: 12z EURO:
-
12Z Euro:
-
Hahah well I would be happy if I did, but it is hard to have a lot of confidence when the parent high is retreating and it is more of a hybrid to in-situ CAD situation. Of course that exact scenario still needs to be ironed out over this week in the model runs. What is interesting too is the next wave on Tuesday trying to show up as the next high builds in over Ontario/Quebec. That sounding by itself would actually indicate more of a snow scenario but I am not so sure the mid levels will be quite that cold.
-
Sorry yeah I miscalculated. WB is 28F or so which is a good ice accrual temp if you can maintain that level and not warm due to the latent heat of freezing.
