eyewall

This morning's version:

And people were getting on me for saying this very thing. We had our chance and it didn't work out here and it sucks. Valentine's Day is much more likely to rain and/or a mixed p event.

A thin glaze of ice here and about 30 snow grains per square centimeter.

And it may very well extend into the 2030's after missing this shot at it. There is no telling for sure of course but it is a very low probability it will be this year.

They do realize this is Wake County right?

Soil temps ahead of the warmup

If we do get another round of winter the MJO forecast points to around the 21st or after so we shall see

Maybe a few more times.

I am pretty sure other than tonight's near non event that we are likely done for the year. I know that stings for our Wake County folks who want a makeup event for the dry slot. After the warm up we get into much more difficult territory for a big hit. Obviously it certainly would not be the 20:1 type ratios. It would likely be a paste job (which is good for photos but can cause a lot more issues). I am not sure when RDU will get another shot at 6 or better but it won't be anytime soon (possibly years). I do hope we get some decent severe chances at least in the Spring.

A frozen puddle advisory.

So my question to everyone else who endured the dry slot is did this feel worse than December 2000 to you, better, or about the same?

I missed the pics thread so I will post them here instead from Greensboro and from here in the screw zone:

The regular Euro ensemble from 12z:

That is true. It is only good if it is a paste job for photos. Half the reason I got so upset about this last one is because of missed photo ops with a big one in Raleigh that could have caught on.

Euro AIFS ensemble:

Still a lot of run to run variability on where that one little band shows up.

Some of the better shots I got from the Triad and inside the screw zone:

Raleigh will probably see token flakes and a glaze. I would suspect the decnt accumulations are most likely from Roxboro through Roanoke Rapids and EC through southeastern VA.

I am ready to move on to severe season being nothing will make up for the screw job on 1/31. Once you get past Valentine's Day it gets a lot harder to get anything worthwhile in most years.

I am ready for severe season since we couldn't get the job done in a near perfect setup this winter IMBY. We aren't going to make up for that this year so might as well move on.

I am looking forward to my trip up at the end of February and hoping the snowy weather holds up. Of course we just had that epic storm where I was and I was in the screw zone dry slot (we only got 4 inches). I did chase to where some of the big amounts occurred though because I wasn't going to sit through that nonsense. The amazing thing for NC is it was in the teens for this storm with 20:1 ratios and better in some cases. Here is a pic from that chase in the FGEN band. See you all soon!

I think next winter the models will be re-programmed with the reality that it doesn't snow in Wake County.