eyewall

I am glad we got the 3 incher last week. 1 for 3 isn't good but better than 0. Hopefully next year we get a shot at a 6+ event.

Yep we will zero out in Raleigh I think. 3 inches for the season it looks like.

RAH says sorry folks NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 PM Friday... ...Winter Weather Advisory for 1-2 inches of remains in effect Tonight through Early Saturday for All of Central NC... Little overall change to the forecast, with the main updates being slightly lower snowfall amounts. The mid-level trough is currently situated over southern IL and western KY. This trough will track southeast in the southeast US tonight, with tremendous height falls overspreading central NC. The trough will close off and move off the New England coast by Saturday morning. At the surface, current analysis shows a 1032 mb high pressure over northwest MO. There is a weak surface low over north- central KY tied to the upper-trough. The developing offshore low is roughly 1008 mb off the southeast coast as noted in satellite imagery. Latest radar trends show some echoes over the southern and northwest Piedmont, however very little of this is reaching the ground. The 18Z GSO sounding still showed considerable dry air below 700 mb and this should be the case until the column saturates as the mid-level trough moves over the area during and after 00Z. Rain showers have taken shape along the NC coast. Outside of some light rain over the far eastern Coastal Plain, this activity should continue to push east with the eastward progression of the system. As the mid-level trough dives southeast and off the coast tonight into tomorrow, trough will take on a negative tilt, further adding to the strong dynamic forcing. Lift centered around the 290K isentropic surface will favor a band of precipitation over the northwest Piedmont that will track east-southeast through the overnight into early Saturday morning. The 12Z forecast soundings from the NAM/GFS indicate that only a short period of rain would be warranted, as the column quickly saturates and, along with dynamic cooling, reaches the wet-bulb zero temperature at the surface as the trough moves through. Thus, the forecast continues the trend of little in the way of rain and mostly a snow event. The latest snowfall totals show a swath of 1-2 inches over the western Piedmont, mainly west of US-1, and generally an inch or less east of US-1 over the Coastal Plain. This is roughly in line with latest high-resolution HRRR/NAM-NEST, which continues to favor higher totals closer to the Triad. Still can`t rule out some areas that could see up to 3 inches, especially where isolated heavier snow bands develop with the strong forcing. Temperatures tonight will drop down into the lower 20s over the Triad to the lower 30s over the south and east. Gusty winds will develop overnight as the coastal low deepens as it tracks off the New England Coast by early Saturday. Northwest winds will become sustained between 10-15 with gusts of 20 to 35 mph, producing wind chills in the single digits to teens.

The real longshot is the players attending real classes ;-)

Reed Trimmer is going to Sandwich. I considered flying up but work says otherwise.

About a tenth of an inch per hour ;-)

It is definitely overkill especially when the game isn't being played at 4am.

Good luck all in this flizzard of the century!

Final Call:

I will be making one more update to my screwcast soon.

It is a glorified flizzard for most. I think that is why, but we will see who lucks out with any mesoscale features.

Agreed. It will be no more than a flizzard for many while a lucky few cash in.

And of course it hits a wall for us lol

It is basically a mid-level dry slot that will be the problem. Wherever that sets up, you will have a screw zone.

Yeah without sneaking a meso band in here it will be almost a non-event for Raleigh but it is what it is.

It is looking more and more like Raleigh will be stuck in the screw zone between the late phasing coastal and the lee side low.

While we sip our Maalox this morning I finally posted some video I took during the last event: As it stands if that lee side meso low continues to appear I will have to factor it in to my forecast update for sure. This is not an easy one.

I loved when I used to have Mondays off when I lived up there. I would have smuggs almost to myself. There would still be visible areas of corduroy at last chair.

The take away from that GFS run is Raleigh jackpots.

Wow this is going to be a meltdown in every subforum!

The NAM has been on its own.