eyewall

looks like it is trying to turn back eastward there for sure.

The question is will it run into the Yucatan at this point?

Aurora is out now in NNE.

Yeah I think the more determinant factor for Tampa is north or south of the bay more than anything.

A lot will also depend on eyewall replacement cycles.

I do not like that GFS run at all for Tampa and of course it will start making people nervous who were hit by Helene.

yes because hurricanes never happen in Florida

If this ends up south of Tampa it will be a blowout tide in the bay. Over and just north would be a record surge most likely.

There apparently was a request for a few hundred body bags now for western NC.

Just had a squarely Earth facing X9 flare. If it produced a solid CME buckle up!

Yesterday I helped load pallets of supplies for western NC to be taken out there by aircraft via operation airdrop. They are also going to portions of SC/TN as well. It became pretty clear this was going to end up being the real story of this hurricane. I am seeing stories of body recovery happening in riverbeds, homes, mudslides/debris flows, and even in trees where the water was that high. I also saw a story of horrific conditions in a long term care facility. That death toll is unfortunately going to climb even more.

Got this shot of a transient supercell passing through the North Hills region just after 2pm:

and 1000 missing.

Be safe and thank you! I am headed to concord tomorrow to assist Operation Airdrop.

Yep the fast forward motion enhanced this effect. The 1938 hurricane is a classic example of this for the Northeast.

The western NC Flooding is definitely unprecedented and historic with so many records not just beat but shattered. Farther east in NC this happened:

The Rocky Mount tornado associated with Helene was EF-3:

Tor north of Rocky Mount NC caused this:

Tornado damage north of Rocky Mount, NC

Western NC got absolutely hammered with flooding

Debris flows at App State in Boone: https://x.com/EthanClarkWX/status/1839710296778387925

where on I-40?

That is not a small lake either.

I am in Atlanta for work and it is a big nothing here being on the weak side with the track sliding east. It is a rain event here with hardly any wind.

Atlanta still sitting on the fence between a real nasty hit and more of a nuisance. The official forecast would point to more of a nuisance there for now with the center passing just east of the metro.