eyewall
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Everything posted by eyewall
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GFS hinting at some flakes in the mountains around 10/16:
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Don't forget the comet at sunset.
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Given we have had a couple of significant and rare aurora events this year and solar max will persist into 2025 a bit, I am creating this thread for spaceweather events here as well. Other interesting celestial phenomena can be posted here too. These were my final edits from the 10/10/24 event:
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It did down here during the May 10th event (G5 storming). I think it has to be intense enough to really start doing that. There were also dancing pillars that night as well.
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My best aerial shot from last night in Raleigh, NC:
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This was my best aerial from last night at Falls Lake in Raleigh, NC:
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I am going through my final edits now and will post more as they are completed but this is one of my aerials at Falls Lake in North Raleigh:
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This solar max is by no means done
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From Reykjavik, North Carolina (Raleigh) Not as intense as May 10th but still very visible to the naked eye including the color (especially the reds). This is incredibly rare to have two aurora events this far south in one year.
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Raleigh, NC during the second substorm:
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In the Lake Wheeler fields in Raleigh during round 2:
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Sky was glowing red when I looked at it!
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As I recall May 10th started in the middle of the day and lasted many hours after dark. All hope is definitely not lost. SWPC expects the high Kp numbers to persist after sunset. There will likely be a number of substorms as well.
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Could add to the main one though. We shall see! May 10th was all M flares stacked up.
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https://x.com/forecaster25/status/1844030900490895485 Buckle up! Even here in NC we may get something closer to the May 10th event.
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They would get an initial surge but then a blowout tide as the center approached and winds turn offshore.
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Ok definitely aiming for a rebound to Cat 5 for a bit.
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Well I will eat my words. I expected additional weakening at 11am.
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Right now I would bet the under on the expected landfall intensity which would be better news if that does happen. We shall see what adjustments are made shortly.
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This storm is definitely feeling some decent shear now and I am not sure it will intensify again for the moment. Looks cloud tops have warmed in the northern half as well.
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Apparently the aurora appeared in NC around 1am:
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929mb and 145mph on the intermediate advisory. In my experience, the storm almost always weakens more than the official forecast during an EWRC. We will see how it rebuilds now that it has completed.
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Again tonight I am seeing shots from New England of Aurora.
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I could see it maxing out at 180 or 185 with perhaps an 890's pressure before degradation begins.
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looks like it is trying to turn back eastward there for sure.
