eyewall

Well I am being relocated for work to be out of the Ice zone so I am going to the DC area where I have family (they won't lose power where they are in snow).

I am pulling up a chair in here this morning. Waking up to this is absolute dog shit.

Yeah none of this is good either way. Might as well give us some drought busting rain and the warm sector instead lol.

Yep and I can't chase this one due to work as we have to stay on for our clients with major events. None the less I guess I will get drone shots of sleet taking down gutters instead of deep snow lol. Honestly for shots, freezing rain is the next best to snow.

Seeing the overnight runs I am ready to head to the cliff. What an absolute disaster in terms of the changes. To see our shot at a big one vaporize is hard.

The Euro has me rattled for sure but we shall see how the 0z suite comes in.

There is no way that verifies even close. I do not think it is possible to get 3 feet in the Piedmont.

Oh yeah always heavy rates just north of the mix line.

Through 12z Sunday:

No way that sleet line stays locked like that unfortunately. Still even a third of those totals would make me happy.

From RAH: All of the above factors combined with bitterly cold and dry air continuously being drawn south into the Carolinas from the Arctic high moving east from the Great Lakes into Upstate NY are likely to result in a moisture-laden and potentially long lasting winter storm across central NC from Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation will move in from the west on Saturday morning and afternoon, potentially on the lighter side initially, with the heaviest likely on Saturday night and early Sunday, tapering off from west to east sometime Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There is still uncertainty on timing with the 12z ECMWF a bit slower compared to the GFS. GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean QPF is generally in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, and with very cold air firmly entrenched at the surface, all of it is likely to be frozen across central NC, whether that be snow or ice. The main question that has to be answered is how strong the push of warmer air is several thousand feet above the surface, which almost always occurs in these setups across central NC. The latest GFS is farther south with the 850 mb front and thus depicts more snow compared to the ECMWF, but this has been going back and forth, and their ensemble guidance has generally been a bit warmer/less bullish with snowfall. So an all snow event across the entire region is very unlikely, but the most favored area for that climatologically would be along and north of the I-85 corridor. This is where NBM probabilities for 6+ inches of snowfall are in the 60-80% range. Meanwhile NBM probabilities of 0.25+ inches of freezing rain are in the 60-80% range across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and central/southern Coastal Plain. Significant accumulations of sleet will also be possible between where the highest freezing rain and snow amounts are. In addition to major travel issues, significant tree damage and power outages may occur especially where the highest ice accumulations occur. While details on specific amounts are still uncertain, confidence is increasing in a major winter storm across central NC, and it is imperative to continue staying tuned for the latest updates as the forecast is likely to change.

It certainly won't east anyone's anxiety lol.

It is anxiety talking for sure because this is make or break for the winter after years of paltry events.

My initial thoughts

I need to order some more Maalox. Anyway the Euro is still a big initial thump of snow even if we do go to ice. I agree this scenario can't be ruled out.

I can't disagree with PackGrad05. Mixed P is still very much a possibility. With that said we also don't want this to slide much farther south to where the cutoff becomes a concern either.

It is the worst feeling riding the line here in Raleigh. All I am hoping for is to hit 6 inches of snow. I know mixing is inevitable but that is what I am hoping for.

LOL I will be able to post my photos by June.

These model runs are actually scary:

spaceweatherlive has the Kp down to 6 now. It was very frustrating because everything was there except the Bz. Even down here the sky would have lit up had that been negative.

Yeah I full expect some taint in central NC from that at this point but I will be happy with a warning level snow even if that does occur.

Yep it sure is although with a stronger parent high than the GFS. It is true CAD is never handled well on the globals.

Got to add this one: