eyewall
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Everything posted by eyewall
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The one on the 17th will verify because I have to leave town then.
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Sleet is typically around a 4:1 ratio. Most I have seen in one event is around 3 inches back on Long Island in the 90's
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Some of these traces I believe are hail as well.
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Yeah I never thought it would be this bad. We could easily have to wait for year 4
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The climate is shifting for sure.
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An inside runner like the GFS.
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The low is another tick farther north than the 6z GFS. This trend usually doesn't reverse. There is no cold air feed and it is turning into an inside runner.
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IF we do lose this one in central NC I think the chance at the futility record for Raleigh rises substantially.
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I have a feeling we may ultimately lose this one to the north as well.
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Had a brief rain/snow mix in Raleigh
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At this point in Raleigh I will treat it like Mobile, Alabama. It will be an absolute miracle if it does snow here at all.
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we need it 60 miles farther south.
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Mainly ZR and mixed P for RDU on the 12z GFS op run for the system next week.
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you and me both. It is almost as if we have seen this movie before.
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I am leaning towards no.
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Well it was fun while it lasted.
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G4 in progress right now. IF it holds until after dark we may have an aurora chance
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Definitely not a good trend for the 7th.
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All I want is the storm to generally stay in each run with a reasonable shot. It is certainly going to vary from run to run and this far out that is splitting hairs.
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It will happen when I am out of state between the 17th and 31st.
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The bad news is no ensemble support:
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We will have to see what the ensembles say but:
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I am not saying it is anywhere near the same scenario but the big on in January 2000 was preceded by a couple of ice events if I remember correctly.
