eyewall

It isn't just us. Much of the West is in real trouble with all time record low snowpack.

My concern for you all is the snowpack being at all time record lows in many spots across the West and what that will mean for water supply and fires.

The death ridge in early April won't help either.

The pollen count is not as high as Georgia here yet but the haze is starting to show up and there is a brush fire south of Raleigh:

Day 1 of the real pollening. The haze is likely to get quite a bit worse with no rain in sight.

That should make Wake County people feel a little better lol.

You can exceed 300kA with positive strikes for sure.

Lock it in:

Definitely impressive for this point in March!

Yeah I knew it when the air didn't have the feel of an outbreak day like it did on 4/16/2011. On top of that as you stated the winds were calm and that is definitely not how it goes around here on most high end days.

Yeah overall it truly was a bust yesterday and even on air meteorologists are basically saying the same. They are taking a beating today.

Those were not 65+ knots. Those would be marked in black.

Most of those came with the NCFR last evening more than likely.

I am getting more wind now than at any point during the storms.

Yeah this is an epic bust for sure. One of the worst I have seen. The bad thing about it is the cry wolf syndrome that will follow.

It would be nice if that would come this way lol.

Agreed On the big days here it is usually very windy even outside storms. 4/16/2011 being the prime example. The problem is this was a cry wolf event and so when we do get a big one that may be an issue.

I don't see how they maintain the MDT. This should be a Slight to be honest. A high shear low cape event. I think they walk it back to ENH and shift it east a bit but we shall see.

I don't see this being very chaseable to be honest and also I am not sure on the instability factor with all these showers. Looks messy.

The storm motions are going to be very rapid so it will basically be one shot at each storm for most chasers.

We have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk. 15% tor and 60% wind.

...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later outlooks. A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf. This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening. Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont. Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead of morning storms. Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture, setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into the afternoon.

and if you go in August they also have humidity with it.

Yeah no way in hell I would want to live there.