eyewall

The fall colors are actually solid at this point. Still a ways to go before peak but the maples especially are killing it with low amounts of leaf drop:

This is not going to get the job done: Cluster analysis of the leading two solutions from the earlier 12z guidance is lining up with the trend within 18z ensemble guidance favoring a northeast lift of low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. If this trend continues and remains void the splitting mid/upper-lvl low scenario, forcing for ascent for meaningful precipitation may be extremely limited over the Carolinas. These solutions still do produce light rain totals over the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, but reasonable high-end amounts struggle to exceed 0.5" in 24 hours for the northern/eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain where moderate to extreme drought persists.

Hopefully this one does not vaporize as well.

Falls Lake is reaching the summer low point today and will certainly fall a bit more.

Yep the double dip of Falls Lake is just about complete, meaning it is about to match the summer low within the next day or so.

Thank you all. It does not look like I am going to find the time to get there but I am glad I took the trip I did for the shots above.

Starting to see the colors pop around here:

any suggestions on where the color is currently worth going for currently? I may still venture that way if it is worthwhile.

Falls Lake is 245.76 Feet so we are about 2-3 days from reaching the summer low.

In a few days it looks like Falls Lake will fall below its summer low point of around 245.55 feet. It is now at 245.86 and dropping. I am afraid we could rival the 2007 lows if this keeps up.

It was too late for Dolly Sods and the remnants of Isaias did a number on the higher elevation leaves but I hit some real nice spots near Monterey VA and at the Blackwater Canyon in WV as well as near Seneca Rocks (which is an awesome place color or not). These were all taken on 10/15 and 10/16.

I am glad I skipped Linn Cove this year as I heard it was a zoo even at sunrise now. I used to go every year for fall but this time I went for WV/VA.

Another 5 to 6 inches and it will match the summer low point.

I agree the rusty colors of post peak can sometimes put on their own show. If the leaf drop is not horrible, Smugglers Notch can put on a good post peak show as I recall. This was a shot I got back on 10/17/2015:

Yeah the water restrictions will likely come back.

This is a better depiction of the lake level without previous years shown. It is on the way to the lows we saw over the summer once again and this week at least looks completely dry.

Falls Lake is becoming an issue again for sure:

Well it looks to be dry as a bone this week. So much for any rain from that coastal.

I got a shot of the funnel which was rainwrapped on this storm. It was on the ground at one point as seen here in the NWS damage survey. I had to dehaze in lightroom to really bring it out. I was just west of where the touchdown occurred

Got this near Morrisville (Had to dehaze in post to really see it due to it being rainwrapped. After there was some tree debris on I-40 between 283 and 284

Cloud tops warmed pretty quick. This system is definitely struggling right now.

They updated it not long ago and cut back central NC from this:

The 12z Euro shreds it and keeps it very weak.

Good! I do not want to have to work this system lol.

This entire summer except for late July was horrible and now the start of fall sucks too. Even worse is the models have backed off a bit on the extent of the cool down. The leaf change is expected to suck as well due to the drought.