We will see if the much anticipated 3rd CME puts on a show again for this evening! We may have to nervously await sunset if it does in fact hit at midday. May 2024 was a daytime hit initially as an FYI so that doesn't mean all hope is lost.
The good news to keep in mind is when May 2024 occurred it was a midday hit and persisted well into the night. So all is not lost if that is the case, especially since the days are short now.
I would say this is at least a few days behind. There are some trees peaking in the triangle now but the main peak has already faded and the winds have resulted in a lot of leaf drop now.
One thing to note is even if the G number is high you need a negative Bz on top of that for a show. That won't be known until it hits. Negative is south which is what you need.
It gets confusing as they use UTC but basically overnight tonight is a solid chance and then we will see if a daytime hit by the next one can hold on until dark tomorrow night.