sbnwx85
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Everything posted by sbnwx85
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Look at what the HRRR puts down before temps go above freezing for my area. Edit: And here's the entire run...FWIW
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I'll see your 36 degrees and raise you 34 degrees and rain.
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Pretty early in the year to break out the Excessive Rainfall Outlook map but here we are.
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I always jump the gun in the "When Will Watches Be Issued Game". I may never learn.
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I would imagine GRR would hoist watches this afternoon considering every model gives them heavy wintry precip in some form. IWX may issue one for Branch and Hillsdale in MI, too.
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The winter of futility records continues for ya. Smdh. At least the end of the month looks to be active.
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Final call: cold rain. Going to be a doozy of an ice storm just about a county or two north though. Might be close enough to look around before work Thursday morning.
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I thought NAM would be a bit south too at first but it turned out to be about the same as the previous run with placement of ice in Michigan. Still lofty totals too.
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18z GFS says maybe it’s time for me to invest in a generator.
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That is a blessing. I’ve been in an ice storm in January 2001 where half of an inch of ice accrued and temps stayed below freezing for over a week. Took several days to restore power.
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I’m leaning toward a cold rain here but occasionally a GFS or Euro run gets ice south of the Michigan border…it’s enough to keep me invested. A shift south by 30-50 miles would put me in the worst of the freezing rain. For now, I-94 in Michigan looks like it will get hit the hardest with ice.
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GFS is a touch south at 12z. Canadian a touch north. Some relatively minor run-to-run variability but overall each model has been really consistent since Friday.
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I’d imagine it would be tough to get much ice along the Illinois/Wisconsin side of the lakeshore with water temps in the mid-30’s and an east wind. Otherwise, it looks like a nasty storm where ever that corridor sets up.
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00z GFS pretty much the same as 12z. 00z Canadian came far enough south to bring significant icing to Northern Indiana/Illinois. Going to be fun to track this one.
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That crap can stay north thank you very much.
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Never got more than a DAB of snow. On to the next one...and 60 degrees next week?
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Light glaze followed by a DAB of snow. Hoping we can reach an inch of snow before the event ends.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
sbnwx85 replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Yeah, I noticed that too. I won't get too hung up on placement yet but if this one ends up being a miss that will be a major disappointment. Either way, I'll be welcoming Spring after next week. -
37 and rain. Yuck.
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Final call: Cold rain, freezing drizzle, dab of sleet, inch of snow.
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Maybe it's the NAM being the NAM at this range but even SBN gets in on some wintry precip and snow.
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I know @Hoosierwas just teasing but certainly not looking for any sympathy. I know I'm lucky to have gotten the snow I've had this winter. The near-record November snow and pre-Christmas blizzard were all lake-effect. Without the lake I'd agree with the ~9" total.
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I didn't think it would be possible two months ago, but we are now below average on snowfall for the season. What an odd winter...terrible for many snow-lovers.
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52 and full sun. Absolutely gorgeous weather in February. Wind hasn’t kicked in yet. I might plant a palm tree today.
