IWX holding serve with the watch but did expand it northward to include the entire CWA. They're wording shows they're going with 4-7 in Michigan counties, 4-8 everywhere else.
GFSv16 also keeps moisture hanging around longer during the day Sunday adding to much higher totals in northeast IN, northwest OH and southern MI. NAM dries things out quicker.
Currently thinking 5-8 inches is a safe bet for my neck of the woods. TV mets forecasting anywhere from 3-6 inches to 6-12 inches. My station waiting until tomorrow to create a snow map.
For whatever it’s worth the NAM Kuchera totals at hour 84 are generally only about an inch less than the GFSv16 totals at hour 84. At least in Northern IL and IN.
Feeling really good about this one. Tomorrow should tell the tale about how this one will play out for the I-80 corridor in Indiana. GFS has been pretty consistent for heavy snow here and the Euro is trending further north.
Brutal Euro run for Indiana and Michigan folks looking for a warning criteria snow. Horrible. Certainly not throwing in the towel but this trend toward shearing out before the best snows get this far east is getting hard to ignore.
Oh, yeah. We'll be fine. We just haven't had a major non-lake effect storm though in about three years. I work in a newsroom and the public is already getting antsy asking stupid questions and trying to compare this to the Blizzard of '78.
I haven't seen a double-digit snowfall since I lived in Central Illinois in March 2013. If I can just get to 10 with this storm I'll be happy camper. Looks like it's going to be a close call at this point.
IWX has yet to issue a Snow Squall Warning since they were created a couple seasons ago. Thoughts on any of these squalls reaching warning criteria on Friday? That's gonna be about the most fun I think I'll get out of this system.