sbnwx85

Thoughts and prayers for a lake effect response as the low pulls away. Global models are picking up on something.

Punting this one. The next one looks too far north at this time, too, but we’ll see. At least there are storms to track.

#TeamCanada

I thought the last 15 days seemed warmer than ever...

I gotta feeling about this one...or maybe the next one.

Euro and GFS all have a signal for a potential snowstorm somewhere in the Great Lakes area next Thursday. There's nothing else track-worthy so I'm all in on this one.

50 degrees and sunny. Can't beat it in January. Kooky Palm Tree guy might be onto something here.

The point is few, if any, meteorologists are going to start making predictions that it's going to snow without some kind of model consensus. Even here a thread was started once there was some consensus among the models.

Two days ago the GFS was also showing a decent ice storm across I-80 in Indiana and Illinois. Good thing mets didn't sound the alarm about that because it's long gone now. They waited to see if there would be model consensus. Shocking concept!

I'd give it a B+ here. We've really only had two events (a week of lake-effect in November and the Christmas lake-effect blizzard) but they were both great events here. We're 15" above average for snowfall for this time of year. I'd give it an "A" but it's been painfully boring and cloudy between the big events. At least the sun is out today.

That Euro run gives me like 6 inches on the 10:1 map. I expect ratios to be a little worse than that. We could thread the needle to about 4" here.

Had a burst of decent snow this afternoon. DAB

Interesting to see such low totals in these parts compared to the previous map. I believe at one point the average snowfall in South Bend was near 70" per year. The data I can find now shows it is 62.5" per year. I wonder if that number will drop again with this latest release.

Breaking news: Snow melts quickly when it's 53 degrees.

Keeping the lake warm. More chances for lake effect later in the winter.

We ended up with around 6 inches of snow. Blizzard conditions subsided late Saturday morning. Got on the road for the Chicago suburbs for Christmas yesterday evening. It was slow going until about Lake County, IN then it was fine.

Still blizzarding. I'm not sure I'll make it home. Might have to stay in the hotel across the street from work.

I'll be in Mount Prospect for this one. Gotta bring my Chicagoland peeps some luck.

Guess I'll start posting in here since we're in the lake-effect portion of the storm locally. Snow has eased but should get a boost with the wave currently moving down the lake around Green Bay.

Winds picking up... At 12:12 PM EST, 2 WNW Goshen [Elkhart Co, IN] TRAINED SPOTTER reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M57 MPH

Blizzard Warning has verified here. The drive into work was horrible. Occasional white out conditions with visibility around 1/4 mile or less the entire way. Roads are a disaster. Would not recommend.

Up to an average snow depth of 4.7”. Absolutely miserable conditions. Snow falling and blowing. Occasional blizzard conditions. I’ll be going into work in an hour. Woo!

Good afd from IWX SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 455 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022 The upper level low`s main vort max lobe moves away from the area into this morning taking the main surface low pressure system into southern Canada. Additionally, trajectories become more westerly allowing for a transition into lake effect snow being the main snow event. With it being so cold, the DGZ is basically into the ground with lake enhanced omega residing above the DGZ. This factor of the cross-hair method being slightly off as well as the strong winds being able to rip apart the snow flakes should help provide a ceiling to our lake effect snow amounts. Additional snowfall amounts will be the greatest downstream of the lake reaching 8 to 12 additional inches of snow there from now through Saturday night. Thereafter, the lake effect snowfall looks to be the main snowfall event through at least much of Sunday. The snow paired with the strong winds will help to lower visibility and so will hold onto the blizzard warning for our lake effect area. One thing to watch for today will be that additional counties could be added on the eastern edge of the blizzard warning. Another hazard today will be the strong gusty winds. Wind gusts will likely be able to surpass 50 mph at their peak and that combined with the powdery natured snow will allow for blowing and drifting of snow as well as lowered visibility. This will impact the N-S roads the most with drifting snow, but travel across all roads will need to use caution where visibility does become lowered. Temperatures this morning have dropped below zero away from the lake influence. With the very strong winds expected to reach between 40 and 50 mph today, wind chills will be able to reach into the upper 20s and low 30s below zero. This is wind chill warning criteria.