sbnwx85

Should have been issued a half hour ago.

New MD out for Illinois. Monster hail possible. Mesoscale Discussion 0794 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152022Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible with supercells that can develop later this afternoon. Watch timing is uncertain but is possible later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus are developing along an eastward moving dryline near the Mississippi River. Ahead of this boundary, a strongly unstable airmass is in place (low 90s F temperatures and mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints). With the strongest mid-level ascent to the northwest of the region, timing of storm initiation as well as storm coverage are uncertain. However, given the lack of MLCIN, a isolated to widely scattered development appears possible later this afternoon. 45-55 kts of effective shear will support supercells. The primary hazards will be large to very large hail and severe winds. The tornado threat is expected to be less than farther north given the slightly veered low-level winds and more sizable temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

18z HRRR tries to pop a few supercells ahead of the main line. Impressively amps up the STP across Indiana and Michigan as the LLJ strengthens.

Ready to see my social media flooded with those weirdo Chicago tornado sirens.

The first watch of the day is out. Public | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood Moderate Moderate Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Moderate Low Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Moderate Moderate Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Minnesota West-Central Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development is anticipated within a narrow warm sector moving into the region. Strong buoyancy and robust deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail from 2" to 3" in diameter, strong gusts, and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Alexandria MN to 55 miles east of Eau Claire WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 20035.

Juiciest day

I wouldn’t be shocked if SPC goes moderate risk for the Michiana region. Storms may be more linear by the time they get here but an embedded, strong tornado or two seems like a good bet locally.

IWX seems to be getting on board for tomorrow. I’ll be sending texts out to family/friends making sure they don’t ignore warnings tomorrow and are prepared. https://x.com/nwsiwx/status/1922760426359603502?s=46

Since we’re on the topic of that 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, I produced a half hour special report for my station on the 60 year anniversary of it last month. Enjoy!

This is my moment. rdy 2 b slabbed.

Going to be a real bummer if we can’t tap into the volatile atmosphere tomorrow. 50/50 shot in S MI/N IN.

Sounding just west of South Bend for Thursday evening... Is this worse than posting a 3 foot snow map four days out?

Yeah, let's get those soil temps up!

First time trying to grow grass. The rain and garden hose are getting the job done. Tomorrow’s rain will be welcome. Look at these little babies.

I'm worried I'll get stuck between the two risks. Maybe I can get initiation to occur overhead on Tuesday. The GFS is more hopeful than the Euro at last check.

Just got to work and the cell to my south is a real talker. Lots of rumbles.

Grass planting szn has started at the South Bend homestead. Sure sign of spring. Will I keep up with the dead patches caused by dog pee through the summer? Stay tuned.

You might squeeze a couple inches out this if it all goes right.

Snowing big wet flakes here. I miss the tornadoes.

That's usually how it goes up here this time of year save 1920 and 1965.

Small town of Bourbon, IN took a hit from a likely tornado tonight. Several homes damaged. The high school is serving as a shelter. It's about 45 minutes south of South Bend.

Ope. Tornado Warning for Jasper County. Won’t take much tonight.

Mesoscale discussion is intriguing but the convection in Indiana right now looks like dog poopoo.

TOR Warned now. Radar indicated.